PortugalSun 1:00 PM CTEstádio da Madeira

Braga at C.D. Nacional

Sun 1:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 2.5

50%

At lock SCB 1.56–1.00 CDN · 0.1 goals over 2.5 · 50% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

P. Víctor · SCB
Forward
N. Kader · CDN
Forward

Braga

3-2-3

Form DLLLD · 9 PF · 10 PA

1.56

Projected

C.D. Nacional

1-1-6

Form DLLLL · 9 PF · 18 PA

1.00

SCB 49%Draw 28%CDN 23%

At lock: projected SCB 1.56–1.00 CDN · most likely 1–1 · likeliest Over 2.5 score 2–1

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

CDN win

34%

22% (no-vig)

Total

2.68

2.5

Gap: +12 pts of win %, +0.18 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 518 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.1838 vs old model 0.2321. Added Oct 2026: attack/defence goal ratings from ESPN results (goals only). The v1 column here is the league's home/draw/away base rates, not an older model. No free archive of closing lines for this league yet; the final projection still leans on the DraftKings line.

The model

How this number was built

SCB 1.56–1.00 CDN · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): CDN att -0.28 / def -0.16 · SCB att +0.12 / def +0.16 · model CDN 1.0–1.7 SCB
Home field
+0.3 goals to CDN
Record
CDN 1-1-6 · SCB 3-2-3
Market prior
Blended 66% toward SCB -175 / total 2.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Pau Víctor
goals 4
Pau Víctor
goalsleaders 4

Njoya Kader
goals 2
Njoya Kader
goalsleaders 2

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	SCB	CDN
Goal Difference	-1	-9
Total Goals	9	9
Assists	6	5
Goals Against	10	18

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

J. Wind anytime goal
Anytime goal · SCB
+150
40%
F. Navarro anytime goal
Anytime goal · SCB
+175
36%
J. Milosevic anytime goal
Anytime goal · SCB
+175
36%
D. Huseinbasic anytime goal
Anytime goal · SCB
+200
33%
R. Horta anytime goal
Anytime goal · SCB
+225
31%
M. Dorgeles anytime goal
Anytime goal · SCB
+245
29%
D. Tiknaz anytime goal
Anytime goal · SCB
+650
13%
Gorby anytime goal
Anytime goal · SCB
+800
11%
F. Nava anytime goal
Anytime goal · CDN
+900
10%
G. Lagerbielke anytime goal
Anytime goal · SCB
+1300
7%
A. Bajrami anytime goal
Anytime goal · SCB
+1300
7%
B. Arrey-Mbi anytime goal
Anytime goal · SCB
+1800
6%

Braga vs Nacional prediction · Oct 25, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 50% model probability. The model projected Braga 1.6, Nacional 1.0 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Nacional 23%, Braga 49%, draw 28%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: Portugal picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day