PortugalSun 3:30 PM CTEstádio José Alvalade

Académico de Viseu at Sporting CP

Sun 3:30 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 3.5

50%

At lock ACV 0.93–2.63 SCP · 0.1 goals over 3.5 · 50% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

A. Clóvis · ACV
Forward
L. Suárez · SCP
Forward

Data-Driven Pick · F. Ioannidis anytime goal

-110

Académico de Viseu

4-2-2

Form DWWWW · 11 PF · 10 PA

0.93

Projected

Sporting CP

5-3-0

Form DWWDD · 20 PF · 9 PA

2.63

ACV 11%Draw 17%SCP 72%

At lock: projected ACV 0.93–2.63 SCP · most likely 0–2 · likeliest Over 3.5 score 1–3

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

SCP win

86%

89% (no-vig)

Total

3.68

3.5

Gap: -3 pts of win %, +0.18 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 518 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.1838 vs old model 0.2321. Added Oct 2026: attack/defence goal ratings from ESPN results (goals only). The v1 column here is the league's home/draw/away base rates, not an older model. No free archive of closing lines for this league yet; the final projection still leans on the DraftKings line.

The model

How this number was built

ACV 0.93–2.63 SCP · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): SCP att +0.56 / def +0.38 · ACV att -0.09 / def -0.08 · model SCP 2.9–0.8 ACV
Home field
+0.3 goals to SCP
Record
SCP 5-3-0 · ACV 4-2-2
Market prior
Blended 66% toward SCP -425 / total 3.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

André Clóvis
goals 4
André Clóvis
goalsleaders 4

Luis Suárez
goals 7
Luis Suárez
goalsleaders 7

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	ACV	SCP
Goal Difference	1	11
Total Goals	11	20
Assists	8	14
Goals Against	10	9

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

Data-Driven PickComputer pick

F. Ioannidis anytime goal

-11052%

Anytime goal · DraftKings

R. Nel anytime goal
Anytime goal · SCP
-105
51%
N. Irankunda anytime goal
Anytime goal · SCP
+125
44%
J. Derry anytime goal
Anytime goal · SCP
+150
40%
G. Catamo anytime goal
Anytime goal · SCP
+205
33%
I. Doumbia anytime goal
Anytime goal · SCP
+215
32%
S. Altimira anytime goal
Anytime goal · SCP
+500
17%
M. Araújo anytime goal
Anytime goal · SCP
+600
14%
E. Quaresma anytime goal
Anytime goal · SCP
+700
13%
A. Mestanza anytime goal
Anytime goal · ACV
+950
10%
Z. Debast anytime goal
Anytime goal · SCP
+1100
8%
R. Dias anytime goal
Anytime goal · SCP
+1100
8%

Académico vs Sporting prediction · Oct 25, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 3.5, with a 50% model probability. The model projected Académico 0.9, Sporting 2.6 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Sporting 72%, Académico 11%, draw 17%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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