Calgary Flames at Anaheim Ducks
TV · ESPN+
@Model projects CGY 2.70 – 3.93 ANA · edge +2.0%; moneylines aren't strong-play markets · informational lean, not a recommended bet
Data-Driven Pick · J. Caulfield Under 1.5 SOG
Projected CGY 2.70–3.93 ANA
Model vs market
Gap: -3 pts of win %, -0.07 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2023-24 to 2025-26, 3,936 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2382 vs old model 0.2430. No free archive of NHL closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet. Win probability now also uses team expected goals from a shot-level model on official NHL play-by-play (distance, angle, shot type, strength): Brier 0.2381 → 0.2370 over 2023-24 to 2025-26, better in each season. Totals unchanged.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: CGY vs ANA
Flames vs Ducks prediction · Nov 15, 2026
The model projects Flames 2.7, Ducks 3.9. Model win probability: Ducks 67%, Flames 33%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NHL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day