NHLFinal/OTUnited Center

Buffalo Sabres at Chicago Blackhawks

Final/OT · ESPN+

2–3

SabresBlackhawks

Final

Shot chart · 5 goals (G)

Buffalo Sabres

8-7-4 · L4

55 PF · 70 PA

Final

Final/OT

Chicago Blackhawks

5-13-1 · L1

46 PF · 83 PA

BUF 68%CHI 32%

Model: BUF 3.87–2.63 CHI

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 11, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3537553738

Missed · off by 2

Most typical sim

BUF 4 – CHI 3

Final

BUF 2 – CHI 3

Winner: Sabres (70%)
Spread: CHI +1.5 covers (54%)
Total: Under 6.5 (52%)
Score error (both teams)2

Player	Line	Sim median	Actual	Lean
A. Vlasic shots on goal	—	1	1	off 0
C. Bedard shots on goal	—	3	2	off -1
O. Power shots on goal	—	1	1	off 0
R. Dahlin shots on goal	—	2	3	off 1

Final from api-web.nhle.com. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: BUF vs CHI

The model

How this number was built

BUF 3.87–2.63 CHI · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Adj. goals -1.09 vs -0.00 · adj. shots -4.6 vs +0.1 · back-to-back: CHI, BUF · model CHI 2.7–3.5 BUF
Home field
+0.2 goals to CHI
Record
CHI 5-13-1 · BUF 8-7-4
Market prior
Blended 63% toward BUF -155 / total 6.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	P1	P2	P3	OT	T
BUF	2	0	0	0	2
CHI	1	0	1	1	3

How the goals went in

GOAL1st 9:001–0
Owen Power Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Josh Norris (3), Jack Quinn (9)
GOAL1st 12:221–1
Frank Nazar Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (10), Roman Kantserov (3)
GOAL1st 15:462–1
Tage Thompson Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Quinn (10), Rasmus Dahlin (8)
GOAL3rd 8:222–2
Frank Nazar Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Sam Rinzel (5), Oliver Moore (2)
GOALOT 3:122–3
Ryan Donato Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Anton Frondell (6), Sam Rinzel (6)

Lean · MoneylineNot a strong playMiss

BUF ML

-148 at lock63%

Model projected BUF 3.82 – 2.51 CHI at lock · edge +3.3%; moneylines aren't strong-play markets · informational lean, not a recommended bet

Players

Prop T. Thompson · BUF
2 S · under 3.5
Z. Benson · BUF
Forward
C. Bedard · CHI
1 HT
L. Crevier · BUF
3 HT
I. Cole · CHI
2 BS
A. Lyon · BUF
3 GA · 25 SA

Data-Driven Pick · T. Thompson Under 3.5 SOG

Strong play-120Hit

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Sabres vs Blackhawks pick result · Nov 12, 2026

Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NHL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day