New York Rangers at Calgary Flames
Final · ESPN+
3–1Shot chart · 4 goals (G)
Model: NYR 3.51–2.24 CGY
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 10, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3129220577
- Winner: Rangers (71%)
- Spread: CGY +1.5 covers (54%)
- Total: Over 5.5 (51%)
- Score error (both teams)2
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z. Whitecloud shots on goal | — | 1 | 0 | off -1 |
| V. Gavrikov shots on goal | — | 1 | 2 | off 1 |
| S. Nemec shots on goal | — | 1 | 2 | off 1 |
| A. Fox shots on goal | — | 1 | 2 | off 1 |
Final from api-web.nhle.com. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: NYR vs CGY
The model
How this number was built
NYR 3.51–2.24 CGY · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. goals -0.56 vs +0.16 · adj. shots -2.4 vs -1.9 · back-to-back: CGY, NYR · model CGY 2.8–3.2 NYR
- Home field+0.2 goals to CGY
- RecordCGY 8-10-1 · NYR 11-8-1
- Market priorBlended 77% toward NYR -148 / total 5.5
Line score
| P1 | P2 | P3 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| CGY | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
How the goals went in
GOAL2nd 0:591–0Mika Zibanejad Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (10), Marcus Pettersson (4)
- GOAL2nd 10:522–0
Mika Zibanejad Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Pavel Dorofeyev (6), Alexis Lafrenière (11)
GOAL3rd 7:412–1Adam Klapka Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Strome (4), Yegor Sharangovich (5)
- GOAL3rd 19:533–1
Tye Kartye Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (10)
Model projected NYR 3.52 – 2.22 CGY at lock · edge +4.4%; moneylines aren't strong-play markets · informational lean, not a recommended bet
Prop M. Gridin · CGY
0 · under 0.5O. Bjorkstrand · NYR
1 HTM. Backlund · CGY
ForwardA. Fox · NYR
1 BS · 1 HTJ. Hanley · CGY
1 BS · 1 HTJ. Korpisalo · NYR
1 GA · 30 SA
Data-Driven Pick · M. Gridin Under 0.5 pts
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Rangers vs Flames pick result · Nov 11, 2026
Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NHL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day