NHLFinalNationwide Arena

Florida Panthers at Columbus Blue Jackets

Final · Disney+

4–1

PanthersBlue Jackets

Final

Shot chart · 5 goals (G)

Florida Panthers

10-7-2 · W3

69 PF · 61 PA

Final

Columbus Blue Jackets

7-9-0 · L4

45 PF · 58 PA

FLA 68%CBJ 32%

At lock: projected FLA 3.51–2.31 CBJ

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 9, 11:01 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3179700529

Called it

Most typical sim

FLA 4 – CBJ 2

Final

FLA 4 – CBJ 1

Winner: Panthers (70%)
Spread: CBJ +1.5 covers (56%)
Total: Over 5.5 (53%)
Score error (both teams)1

Player	Line	Sim median	Actual	Lean
I. Provorov shots on goal	—	2	5	off 3
S. Jones shots on goal	—	2	0	off -2
G. Forsling shots on goal	—	1	2	off 1
Z. Werenski shots on goal	—	3	6	off 3

Final from api-web.nhle.com. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: FLA vs CBJ

The model

How this number was built

FLA 3.51–2.31 CBJ · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Adj. goals -0.26 vs -0.03 · adj. shots -2.1 vs -1.3 · back-to-back: CBJ, FLA · model CBJ 3.0–3.1 FLA
Home field
+0.2 goals to CBJ
Record
CBJ 7-9-0 · FLA 10-7-2
Market prior
Blended 78% toward FLA -125 / total 5.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	P1	P2	P3	T
FLA	0	2	2	4
CBJ	0	1	0	1

How the goals went in

GOAL2nd 2:001–0
Sam Bennett Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Anton Lundell (3), Seth Jones (18)
GOAL2nd 4:172–0
Lars Eller Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (7), Aaron Ekblad (5)
GOAL2nd 19:412–1
Ivan Provorov Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Dmitri Voronkov (3), Valeri Nichushkin (7)
GOAL3rd 14:293–1
Sam Bennett Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Aaron Ekblad (6), Matthew Tkachuk (23)
GOAL3rd 17:444–1
Sam Reinhart Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Anton Lundell (4), Eetu Luostarinen (3)

Computer pick · Total

Over 5.5

54%

At lock FLA 3.51–2.31 CBJ · 0.3 goals over 5.5 · 54% is the confidence saved at lock

Miss

Players

Prop S. Reinhart · FLA
1 G
S. Bennett · FLA
1 HT
C. Coyle · CBJ
2 HT
A. Ekblad · FLA
Defenseman
D. Fabbro · CBJ
1 HT
J. Markstrom · FLA
1 GA · 39 SA

Data-Driven Pick · S. Reinhart anytime goal

+175Hit

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Panthers vs Blue Jackets pick result · Nov 10, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 5.5, with a 54% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NHL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day