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New York Rangers at Edmonton Oilers

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1–3

RangersOilers

Final

Shot chart · 4 goals (G)

New York Rangers

10-8-1 · W2

64 PF · 57 PA

Final

Edmonton Oilers

13-3-3 · W4

82 PF · 58 PA

NYR 32%EDM 68%

At lock: projected NYR 2.62–3.85 EDM

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 8, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3213255767

Called it

Most typical sim

NYR 3 – EDM 4

Final

NYR 1 – EDM 3

Winner: Oilers (69%)
Spread: NYR +1.5 covers (55%)
Total: Over 6.5 (52%)
Score error (both teams)3

Player	Line	Sim median	Actual	Lean
C. McDavid shots on goal	—	3	4	off 1
A. Fox shots on goal	—	1	3	off 2
V. Gavrikov shots on goal	—	1	0	off -1
E. Bouchard shots on goal	—	2	1	off -1

Final from api-web.nhle.com. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: NYR vs EDM

The model

How this number was built

NYR 2.62–3.85 EDM · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Adj. goals +0.54 vs +0.16 · adj. shots -2.4 vs -4.2 · back-to-back: EDM, NYR · model EDM 3.1–3.0 NYR
Home field
+0.2 goals to EDM
Record
EDM 13-3-3 · NYR 10-8-1
Market prior
Blended 77% toward EDM -162 / total 6.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	P1	P2	P3	T
NYR	0	1	0	1
EDM	1	1	1	3

How the goals went in

GOAL1st 6:420–1
Connor McDavid Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: none
GOAL2nd 2:590–2
Leon Draisaitl Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Vasily Podkolzin (6), Mattias Ekholm (6)
GOAL2nd 5:051–2
Jaroslav Chmelar Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (13)
GOAL3rd 18:471–3
Leon Draisaitl Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: none

Computer pick · Total

Under 6.5

50%

At lock NYR 2.62–3.85 EDM · 0.03 goals under 6.5 · 50% is the confidence saved at lock

Hit

Players

Prop L. Draisaitl · EDM
2 G
O. Bjorkstrand · NYR
1 BS · 2 HT
J. Dickinson · EDM
1 BS · 3 HT
A. Fox · NYR
Defenseman
E. Bouchard · EDM
1 BS · 1 HT
D. Garand · NYR
2 GA · 19 SA

Data-Driven Pick · L. Draisaitl anytime goal

-110Hit

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Rangers vs Oilers pick result · Nov 9, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 6.5, with a 50% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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