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Pittsburgh Penguins at Los Angeles Kings

Final · ESPN+

5–2

PenguinsKings

Final

Shot chart · 7 goals (G)

Pittsburgh Penguins

6-9-2 · L1

62 PF · 71 PA

Final

Los Angeles Kings

5-8-2 · L4

49 PF · 63 PA

PIT 33%LA 67%

At lock: projected PIT 2.57–3.77 LA

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2808180150

Missed · off by 4

Most typical sim

PIT 3 – LA 4

Final

PIT 5 – LA 2

Winner: Kings (70%)
Spread: PIT +1.5 covers (55%)
Total: Under 6.5 (51%)
Score error (both teams)4

Player	Line	Sim median	Actual	Lean
E. Karlsson shots on goal	—	2	0	off -2

Final from api-web.nhle.com. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: PIT vs LA

The model

How this number was built

PIT 2.57–3.77 LA · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Adj. goals -0.39 vs -0.11 · adj. shots -1.9 vs -1.8 · back-to-back: LA, PIT · model LA 3.3–3.0 PIT
Home field
+0.2 goals to LA
Record
LA 5-8-2 · PIT 6-9-2
Market prior
Blended 78% toward LA -118 / total 6.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	P1	P2	P3	T
PIT	3	1	1	5
LA	1	1	0	2

How the goals went in

GOAL1st 1:521–0
Tommy Novak Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Declan Carlile (3), Kris Letang (7)
GOAL1st 5:102–0
Tommy Novak Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Ben Kindel (4)
GOAL1st 9:552–1
Corey Perry Goal (2) Batted, assists: Mikey Anderson (2), Artemi Panarin (10)
GOAL1st 19:313–1
Egor Chinakhov Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Ville Koivunen (4), Evgeni Malkin (6)
GOAL2nd 3:073–2
Alex Laferriere Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (7), Erik Gustafsson (5)
GOAL2nd 17:134–2
Sidney Crosby Goal (5) Deflected, assists: Evgeni Malkin (7), Erik Karlsson (14)
GOAL3rd 18:445–2
Sidney Crosby Goal (6) Poke, assists: Evgeni Malkin (8), Kris Letang (8)

Computer pick · Total

Under 6.5

53%

At lock PIT 2.57–3.77 LA · 0.2 goals under 6.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock

Miss

Players

Prop A. Panarin · LA
0 G
J. Brazeau · PIT
Forward
J. Armia · LA
1 BS · 1 HT
D. Carlile · PIT
3 HT
M. Anderson · LA
2 HT · 1 TK
S. Murashov · PIT
2 GA · 28 SA

Data-Driven Pick · A. Panarin anytime goal

+135Miss

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Penguins vs Kings pick result · Nov 7, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 6.5, with a 53% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NHL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day