NHLFinalBall Arena

Detroit Red Wings at Colorado Avalanche

Final · ESPN+

0–4

Red WingsAvalanche

Final

Shot chart · 4 goals (G)

Detroit Red Wings

7-8-3 · W1

57 PF · 64 PA

Final

Colorado Avalanche

10-6-2 · W1

85 PF · 64 PA

DET 32%COL 68%

At lock: projected DET 2.57–3.86 COL

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2791402531

Called it

Most typical sim

DET 3 – COL 4

Final

DET 0 – COL 4

Winner: Avalanche (70%)
Spread: DET +1.5 covers (55%)
Total: Over 6.5 (51%)
Score error (both teams)3

Player	Line	Sim median	Actual	Lean
M. Seider shots on goal	—	2	0	off -2
J. Faulk shots on goal	—	1	2	off 1
D. Toews shots on goal	—	2	1	off -1
C. Makar shots on goal	—	2	2	off 0

Final from api-web.nhle.com. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: DET vs COL

The model

How this number was built

DET 2.57–3.86 COL · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Adj. goals +0.71 vs -0.37 · adj. shots +0.1 vs -1.9 · back-to-back: COL, DET · model COL 3.5–2.7 DET
Home field
+0.2 goals to COL
Record
COL 10-6-2 · DET 7-8-3
Market prior
Blended 63% toward COL -225 / total 6.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	P1	P2	P3	T
DET	0	0	0	0
COL	0	2	2	4

How the goals went in

GOAL2nd 9:460–1
Martin Necas Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: T.J. Hughes (5), Cale Makar (15)
GOAL2nd 12:300–2
Nathan MacKinnon Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Cale Makar (16), Martin Necas (13)
GOAL3rd 7:150–3
Martin Necas Goal (9) Batted, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (19), Devon Toews (11)
GOAL3rd 9:450–4
Cale Makar Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (20), Martin Necas (14)

Computer pick · Total

Under 6.5

51%

At lock DET 2.57–3.86 COL · 0.1 goals under 6.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock

Hit

Players

Prop N. MacKinnon · COL
1 G
V. Arvidsson · DET
1 BS
T.J. Hughes · COL
5 HT
B. Chiarot · DET
2 BS · 2 HT
B. Burns · COL
1 BS · 1 HT
D. Tarasov · DET
4 GA · 29 SA

Data-Driven Pick · N. MacKinnon anytime goal

+115Hit

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Red Wings vs Avalanche pick result · Nov 7, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 6.5, with a 51% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NHL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day