NHLFinalAmerican Airlines Center

San Jose Sharks at Dallas Stars

Final · ESPN+

3–4

SharksStars

Final

Shot chart · 7 goals (G)

San Jose Sharks

7-11-1 · W1

59 PF · 79 PA

Final

Dallas Stars

10-5-2 · W1

54 PF · 49 PA

SJ 28%DAL 72%

At lock: projected SJ 2.34–3.84 DAL

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2992881054

Called it

Most typical sim

SJ 2 – DAL 4

Final

SJ 3 – DAL 4

Winner: Stars (74%)
Spread: SJ +1.5 covers (51%)
Total: Under 6.5 (54%)
Score error (both teams)1

Player	Line	Sim median	Actual	Lean
E. Lindell shots on goal	—	1	2	off 1
T. Harley shots on goal	—	2	2	off 0

Final from api-web.nhle.com. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: SJ vs DAL

The model

How this number was built

SJ 2.34–3.84 DAL · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Adj. goals +0.09 vs -0.72 · adj. shots -1.6 vs -4.9 · back-to-back: DAL, SJ · model DAL 3.6–2.3 SJ
Home field
+0.2 goals to DAL
Record
DAL 10-5-2 · SJ 7-11-1
Market prior
Blended 64% toward DAL -290 / total 6.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	P1	P2	P3	T
SJ	1	2	0	3
DAL	3	1	0	4

How the goals went in

GOAL1st 7:221–0
Michael Misa Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (12), Will Smith (6)
GOAL1st 9:161–1
Roope Hintz Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (12), Thomas Harley (8)
GOAL1st 15:171–2
Jamie Benn Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (8)
GOAL1st 16:511–3
Jason Robertson Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (11), Thomas Harley (9)
GOAL2nd 2:472–3
Ivar Stenberg Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Macklin Celebrini (13), Eric Pohlkamp (1)
GOAL2nd 14:302–4
Thomas Harley Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (13), Mikko Rantanen (12)
GOAL2nd 17:023–4
Will Smith Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Mason Marchment (3), Macklin Celebrini (14)

Computer pick · Spread

SJ +1.5

50%

At lock SJ 2.34–3.84 DAL · DAL by 1.5 goals vs SJ +1.5 · 50% is the confidence saved at lock

Hit

Players

Prop J. Robertson · DAL
1 G
F. Bystedt · SJ
Forward
J. Benn · DAL
1 BS
S. Dickinson · SJ
1 BS · 1 TK
L. Bichsel · DAL
7 HT
A. Nedeljkovic · SJ
4 GA · 31 SA

Data-Driven Pick · J. Robertson anytime goal

+105Hit

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Sharks vs Stars pick result · Nov 7, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is SJ +1.5, with a 50% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NHL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day