NHLFinalScotiabank Arena

Montreal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs

Final · ESPN+

4–2

CanadiensMaple Leafs

Final

Shot chart · 6 goals (G)

Montreal Canadiens

11-3-3 · L1

68 PF · 61 PA

Final

Toronto Maple Leafs

8-8-2 · L6

69 PF · 76 PA

MTL 67%TOR 33%

At lock: projected MTL 3.87–2.67 TOR

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2925770578

Called it

Most typical sim

MTL 4 – TOR 3

Final

MTL 4 – TOR 2

Winner: Canadiens (68%)
Spread: TOR +1.5 covers (56%)
Total: Over 6.5 (53%)
Score error (both teams)1

Player	Line	Sim median	Actual	Lean
N. Dobson shots on goal	—	2	3	off 1
J. McCabe shots on goal	—	1	1	off 0
D. Raddysh shots on goal	—	2	1	off -1
L. Hutson shots on goal	—	1	2	off 1

Final from api-web.nhle.com. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: MTL vs TOR

The model

How this number was built

MTL 3.87–2.67 TOR · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Adj. goals -0.43 vs +0.49 · adj. shots -2.0 vs -0.3 · back-to-back: TOR, MTL · model TOR 3.1–3.3 MTL
Home field
+0.2 goals to TOR
Record
TOR 8-8-2 · MTL 11-3-3
Market prior
Blended 78% toward MTL -122 / total 6.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	P1	P2	P3	T
MTL	2	1	1	4
TOR	0	0	2	2

How the goals went in

GOAL1st 5:561–0
Alex Newhook Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Oliver Kapanen (1)
GOAL1st 13:062–0
Alex Newhook Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Kaiden Guhle (4), Kirby Dach (5)
GOAL2nd 12:573–0
Chris Kreider Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none
GOAL3rd 6:193–1
William Nylander Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Darren Raddysh (10), Auston Matthews (16)
GOAL3rd 7:143–2
Gavin McKenna Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Dakota Joshua (1), Colton Sissons (4)
GOAL3rd 12:154–2
Zachary Bolduc Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (14), Cole Caufield (5)

Computer pick · Total

Over 6.5

51%

At lock MTL 3.87–2.67 TOR · 0.04 goals over 6.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock

Miss

Players

Prop C. Caufield · MTL
0 G
O. Beck · MTL
2 BS · 2 HT
T. Blueger · TOR
1 BS
A. Carrier · MTL
1 BS · 1 HT
O. Ekman-Larsson · TOR
3 HT
J. Fowler · MTL
2 GA · 28 SA

Data-Driven Pick · C. Caufield anytime goal

+125Miss

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Canadiens vs Maple Leafs pick result · Nov 7, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 6.5, with a 51% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NHL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day