St. Louis Blues at Nashville Predators
Final · NHL Net
1–3Shot chart · 4 goals (G)
At lock: projected STL 3.48–2.33 NSH
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2825104864
- Winner: Blues (69%)
- Spread: NSH +1.5 covers (57%)
- Total: Over 5.5 (52%)
- Score error (both teams)4
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Skjei shots on goal | — | 1 | 2 | off 1 |
| C. Parayko shots on goal | — | 1 | 1 | off 0 |
| R. Josi shots on goal | — | 2 | 2 | off 0 |
| P. Broberg shots on goal | — | 2 | 1 | off -1 |
Final from api-web.nhle.com. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: STL vs NSH
The model
How this number was built
STL 3.48–2.33 NSH · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. goals +0.33 vs +0.10 · adj. shots -2.0 vs -1.2 · back-to-back: NSH, STL · model NSH 3.0–2.9 STL
- Home field+0.2 goals to NSH
- RecordNSH 8-4-5 · STL 7-8-2
- Market priorBlended 78% toward STL -110 / total 5.5
Line score
| P1 | P2 | P3 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| NSH | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
How the goals went in
GOAL1st 13:071–0Jimmy Snuggerud Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Philip Broberg (9), Robert Thomas (9)
GOAL1st 16:071–1Steven Stamkos Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Mavrik Bourque (3), Roman Josi (17)
- GOAL2nd 9:021–2
Ross Colton Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Drury (3), Roman Josi (18)
- GOAL3rd 18:311–3
Nick Perbix Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Steven Stamkos (9), Filip Forsberg (15)
At lock STL 3.48–2.33 NSH · 0.3 goals over 5.5 · 54% is the confidence saved at lock
MissProp S. Stamkos · NSH
1 GP. Buchnevich · STL
1 TKM. Bourque · NSH
2 HTJ. Barron · STL
2 BSD. Hunt · NSH
2 BS · 1 HTJ. Hofer · STL
2 GA · 28 SA
Data-Driven Pick · S. Stamkos anytime goal
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Blues vs Predators pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 5.5, with a 54% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NHL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day