NHLFinalNationwide Arena

Colorado Avalanche at Columbus Blue Jackets

Final · ESPN+

2–7

AvalancheBlue Jackets

Final

Shot chart · 9 goals (G)

Colorado Avalanche

9-6-1 · W1

85 PF · 64 PA

Final

Columbus Blue Jackets

6-7-0 · L4

45 PF · 58 PA

COL 68%CBJ 32%

At lock: projected COL 3.78–2.51 CBJ

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 2, 11:01 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3060285720

Missed · off by 6

Most typical sim

COL 4 – CBJ 3

Final

COL 2 – CBJ 7

Winner: Avalanche (71%)
Spread: CBJ +1.5 covers (54%)
Total: Under 6.5 (52%)
Score error (both teams)6

Player	Line	Sim median	Actual	Lean
Z. Werenski shots on goal	—	3	2	off -1
N. MacKinnon shots on goal	—	4	2	off -2
I. Provorov shots on goal	—	2	4	off 2
C. Makar shots on goal	—	2	5	off 3

Final from api-web.nhle.com. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: COL vs CBJ

The model

How this number was built

COL 3.78–2.51 CBJ · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Adj. goals -0.26 vs +0.71 · adj. shots -2.1 vs +0.9 · back-to-back: CBJ, COL · model CBJ 2.9–3.3 COL
Home field
+0.2 goals to CBJ
Record
CBJ 6-7-0 · COL 9-6-1
Market prior
Blended 79% toward COL -125 / total 6.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	P1	P2	P3	T
COL	1	1	0	2
CBJ	2	4	1	7

How the goals went in

GOAL1st 0:280–1
Mathieu Olivier Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (9)
GOAL1st 7:370–2
Ivan Provorov Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Conor Garland (1), Valeri Nichushkin (6)
GOAL1st 10:571–2
Cale Makar Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (17), Sam Malinski (7)
GOAL2nd 4:191–3
Jake Christiansen Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Mathieu Olivier (2), Charlie Coyle (10)
GOAL2nd 7:201–4
Cole Sillinger Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Zach Werenski (11), Mathieu Olivier (3)
GOAL2nd 12:031–5
Charlie Coyle Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Kent Johnson (6), Zach Werenski (12)
GOAL2nd 12:421–6
Valeri Nichushkin Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (4), Denton Mateychuk (2)
GOAL2nd 16:352–6
Nazem Kadri Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (18), Cale Makar (14)
GOAL3rd 11:212–7
Charlie Coyle Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Sillinger (4), Damon Severson (4)

Computer pick · Total

Under 6.5

53%

At lock COL 3.78–2.51 CBJ · 0.2 goals under 6.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock

Miss

Players

Prop N. MacKinnon · COL
0 G
T.J. Hughes · COL
1 HT
C. Coyle · CBJ
2 BS
B. Burns · COL
2 BS
J. Christiansen · CBJ
1 HT
M. Blackwood · COL
3 GA · 15 SA

Data-Driven Pick · N. MacKinnon anytime goal

+135Miss

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Avalanche vs Blue Jackets pick result · Nov 3, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 6.5, with a 53% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NHL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day