Detroit Red Wings at Calgary Flames
TV · ESPN+
At lock DET 3.43–2.18 CGY · DET by 1.3 goals vs CGY +1.5 · 55% is the confidence saved at lock
At lock: projected DET 3.43–2.18 CGY
Model vs market
Gap: +3 pts of win %, +0.58 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2023-24 to 2025-26, 3,936 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2382 vs old model 0.2430. No free archive of NHL closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet. Win probability now also uses team expected goals from a shot-level model on official NHL play-by-play (distance, angle, shot type, strength): Brier 0.2381 → 0.2370 over 2023-24 to 2025-26, better in each season. Totals unchanged.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: DET vs CGY
Red Wings vs Flames prediction · Oct 24, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is CGY +1.5, with a 55% model probability. The model projected Red Wings 3.4, Flames 2.2 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Flames 31%, Red Wings 69%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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