Toronto Maple Leafs at Edmonton Oilers
TV · ESPN+
At lock TOR 2.66–3.88 EDM · EDM by 1.2 goals vs TOR +1.5 · 55% is the confidence saved at lock
Data-Driven Pick · C. McDavid anytime goal
At lock: projected TOR 2.66–3.88 EDM
Model vs market
Gap: -1 pts of win %, +0.10 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2023-24 to 2025-26, 3,936 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2382 vs old model 0.2430. No free archive of NHL closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet. Win probability now also uses team expected goals from a shot-level model on official NHL play-by-play (distance, angle, shot type, strength): Brier 0.2381 → 0.2370 over 2023-24 to 2025-26, better in each season. Totals unchanged.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: TOR vs EDM
Maple Leafs vs Oilers prediction · Oct 24, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is TOR +1.5, with a 55% model probability. The model projected Maple Leafs 2.7, Oilers 3.9 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Oilers 67%, Maple Leafs 33%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NHL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day