New York Rangers at Ottawa Senators
TV · NHL Net
At lock NYR 2.16–3.44 OTT · OTT by 1.3 goals vs NYR +1.5 · 55% is the confidence saved at lock
At lock: projected NYR 2.16–3.44 OTT
Model vs market
Backtest 2023-24 to 2025-26, 3,936 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2382 vs old model 0.2430. No free archive of NHL closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet. Win probability now also uses team expected goals from a shot-level model on official NHL play-by-play (distance, angle, shot type, strength): Brier 0.2381 → 0.2370 over 2023-24 to 2025-26, better in each season. Totals unchanged.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: NYR vs OTT
Rangers vs Senators prediction · Oct 24, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is NYR +1.5, with a 55% model probability. The model projected Rangers 2.2, Senators 3.4 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Senators 57%, Rangers 43%.
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