Winnipeg Jets at Dallas Stars
TV · ESPN+
At lock WPG 2.16–3.40 DAL · WPG by 0.3 goals vs WPG +1.5
K. Connor · WPG
ForwardsM. Scheifele · WPG
ForwardsM. Rantanen · DAL
Forwards
At lock: projected WPG 2.16–3.40 DAL · most likely 2–3
Model vs market
Gap: -2 pts of win %, +0.17 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2023-24 to 2025-26, 3,936 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2382 vs old model 0.2430. No free archive of NHL closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet. Win probability now also uses team expected goals from a shot-level model on official NHL play-by-play (distance, angle, shot type, strength): Brier 0.2381 → 0.2370 over 2023-24 to 2025-26, better in each season. Totals unchanged.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: WPG vs DAL
The model
How this number was built
WPG 2.16–3.40 DAL · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. goals +0.40 vs -0.23 · adj. shots -3.5 vs -4.8 · model DAL 3.2–2.5 WPG
- Home field+0.2 goals to DAL
- RecordDAL 5-3-1 · WPG 4-3-2
- Market priorBlended 66% toward DAL -205 / total 5.5
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Jets vs Stars prediction · Oct 22, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is WPG +1.5, with a 55% model probability. The model projected Jets 2.2, Stars 3.4 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Stars 69%, Jets 31%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NHL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day