Milwaukee Bucks at Washington Wizards
TV · MNMT
MIL 117.30–120.33 WSH
Projected MIL 117.30–120.33 WSH
Model vs market
Gap: -5.2 margin, -6.7 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2023-24 to 2025-26, 3,692 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2078 vs old model 0.2120. No free archive of NBA closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet. Game totals also use a possession model (shot mix, shooting and pace from team box lines), which cut total-points error by 0.17 pts/game in every test season; it didn't improve win probability, so that stays on v2.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: MIL vs WSH
Bucks vs Wizards prediction · Oct 21, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 239.5, with a 55% model probability. The model projects Bucks 117.3, Wizards 120.3. Model win probability: Wizards 60%, Bucks 40%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NBA picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day