Charlotte Hornets at Brooklyn Nets
TV · NBA League Pass
CHA 109.49–109.21 BKN
Projected CHA 109.49–109.21 BKN
Model vs market
Gap: -12.7 margin, +1.4 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2023-24 to 2025-26, 3,692 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2078 vs old model 0.2120. No free archive of NBA closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet. Game totals also use a possession model (shot mix, shooting and pace from team box lines), which cut total-points error by 0.17 pts/game in every test season; it didn't improve win probability, so that stays on v2.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: CHA vs BKN
Hornets vs Nets prediction · Oct 21, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is CHA +2.5, with a 56% model probability. The model projects Hornets 109.5, Nets 109.2. Model win probability: Nets 49%, Hornets 51%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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