Minnesota Timberwolves at Miami Heat
TV · ESPN
MIN 120.34–121.77 MIA
Projected MIN 120.34–121.77 MIA
Model vs market
Gap: -0.3 margin, -1.4 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2023-24 to 2025-26, 3,692 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2078 vs old model 0.2120. No free archive of NBA closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet. Game totals also use a possession model (shot mix, shooting and pace from team box lines), which cut total-points error by 0.17 pts/game in every test season; it didn't improve win probability, so that stays on v2.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: MIN vs MIA
Timberwolves vs Heat prediction · Oct 21, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 242.5, with a 51% model probability. The model projects Timberwolves 120.3, Heat 121.8. Model win probability: Heat 55%, Timberwolves 45%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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