NCAAFWed 7:00 PM CTElliott T. Bowers Stadium

New Mexico State Aggies at Sam Houston Bearkats

TV · ESPN2

Wed 7:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 45.5

52%

NMSU 24.14–21.67 SHSU

New Mexico State Aggies

2-4 · L1

142 PF · 154 PA

24.14

Projected

Sam Houston Bearkats

1-5 · L3

117 PF · 147 PA

21.67

NMSU 56%SHSU 44%

Projected NMSU 24.14–21.67 SHSU

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

NMSU -1.4

NMSU -3.0

Total

46.5

45.5

Gap: +1.6 margin, +1.0 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: NMSU vs SHSU

The model

How this number was built

NMSU 24.14–21.67 SHSU · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
SHSU -16.7 vs NMSU -13.2 · pred margin -2.5
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -6.1 vs -1.8 · model SHSU 22.7–26.0 NMSU
Home field
+3.0 pts to SHSU
Record
SHSU 1-5 · NMSU 2-4
Market prior
Blended 68% toward NMSU -3 / total 45.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Trey Hedden
Pass 65/124, 906 YDS, 5 TD, 6 INT
James Jones
Rush 92 CAR, 599 YDS, 3 TD
TK King
Rec 20 REC, 286 YDS, 3 TD

Landyn Locke
Pass 129/205, 1418 YDS, 11 TD, 4 INT
Alton McCaskill
Rush 53 CAR, 211 YDS, 1 TD
Chris Reed
Rec 17 REC, 289 YDS, 3 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	NMSU	SHSU
Points Per Game	23.7	19.5
Total Yards	373.3	342.0
Yards Passing	230.5	247.0
Yards Rushing	142.8	95.0
Points Allowed Per Game	25.7	24.5
Yards Allowed	347.8	338.2
Pass Yards Allowed	222.3	137.8
Rush Yards Allowed	125.5	200.3

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

New Mexico St vs Sam Houston prediction · Oct 21, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 45.5, with a 52% model probability. The model projects New Mexico St 24.1, Sam Houston 21.7. Model win probability: Sam Houston 44%, New Mexico St 56%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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