MLSWed 6:00 PM CTTQL Stadium

D.C. United at FC Cincinnati

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Computer pick · Total

Over 3.5

57%

DC 1.41–2.48 CIN

D.C. United

7-12-10

Form DWLDL · 37 PF · 51 PA

1.41

Projected

FC Cincinnati

9-9-11

Form DLWLD · 60 PF · 70 PA

2.48

DC 20%Draw 20%CIN 60%

Projected DC 1.41–2.48 CIN · most likely 1–2

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

CIN win

70%

71% (no-vig)

Total

3.89

3.5

Gap: -1 pts of win %, +0.39 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2022–2026, 2,507 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2199 vs old model 0.2227 vs closing line 0.2119. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match (goals only, as backtested), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.

The model

How this number was built

DC 1.41–2.48 CIN · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): CIN att +0.03 / def -0.37 · DC att -0.38 / def -0.29 · model CIN 2.5–1.4 DC
Home field
+0.3 goals to CIN
Record
CIN 9-9-11 · DC 7-12-10

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Tai Baribo
goals 16
Tai Baribo
goalsleaders 16

Kévin Denkey
goals 17
Kévin Denkey
goalsleaders 17

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	DC	CIN
Goal Difference	-14	-10
Total Goals	37	60
Assists	23	44
Goals Against	51	70

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

L. Munteanu anytime goal
Anytime goal · DC
+250
29%
D. Doudera anytime goal
Anytime goal · CIN
+550
15%
T. Malacia anytime goal
Anytime goal · CIN
+650
13%
A. Dozzell anytime goal
Anytime goal · DC
+1300
7%
K. Rowles anytime goal
Anytime goal · DC
+2200
6%

D.C. United vs Cincinnati prediction · Oct 21, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 3.5, with a 57% model probability. The model projects D.C. United 1.4, Cincinnati 2.5. Model win probability: Cincinnati 60%, D.C. United 20%, draw 20%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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