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Board/NFL
NFLFinalU.S. Bank Stadium

Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings

Final · ESPN

Bills23–6Vikings
BillsVikings
Final
Buffalo Bills
7-1 · W4
256 PF · 187 PA
23
Final
Final
Minnesota Vikings
6-2 · L2
146 PF · 116 PA
6
BUF 53%MIN 47%

At lock: projected BUF 21.00–20.00 MIN

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 8, 8:07 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1413031608

Winner called · off by 17
Most typical sim
BUF 24 – MIN 22
Final
BUF 23 – MIN 6
  • Winner: Bills (58%)
  • Spread: MIN +3 covers (46% vs 46%, push 8%)
  • Total: Over 43.5 (62%)
  • Score error (both teams)17
PlayerLineSim medianActualLean
A. Jones Sr. rush yds—5516off -39
J. Jefferson rec yds—5558off 3
J. Allen pass yds—235234off -1
C. Wentz pass yds—20481off -123
K. Shakir rec yds—4758off 11
J. Cook III rush yds—96107off 11
J. Addison rec yds—4128off -13
D. Moore rec yds—4525off -20

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: BUF vs MIN

The model

How this number was built

BUF 21.00–20.00 MIN · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

  • Power index
    MIN +2.7 vs BUF +5.8 · pred margin -2.7
  • Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
    EPA/play (opp-adj.) MIN off -0.17, def stop +0.14 · BUF off +0.12, def stop +0.06 · model MIN 19.5–21.7 BUF
  • Home field
    +2.4 pts to MIN
  • Record
    MIN 6-2 · BUF 7-1
  • Market prior
    Blended 67% toward BUF -3.5 / total 46.5
Full write-up of the model

Line score

Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BUF3731023
MIN06006

How the points were scored

  • FGQ1 1:573–0

    Tyler Bass 39 Yd Field Goal

  • FGQ2 4:023–3

    Will Reichard 43 Yd Field Goal

  • TDQ2 0:4410–3

    Keleki Latu 25 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick)

  • FGQ2 0:0510–6

    Will Reichard 53 Yd Field Goal

  • FGQ3 6:0313–6

    Tyler Bass 25 Yd Field Goal

  • TDQ4 6:1720–6

    James Cook III 5 Yd Rush (Tyler Bass Kick)

  • FGQ4 4:4023–6

    Tyler Bass 52 Yd Field Goal

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

BUFC/ATTYDSAVGTDINTSACKSQBRRTG
Josh Allen
#17
21/312347.5114-2974.887.3
Team21/312057.5114-29--87.3

Rushing

BUFCARYDSAVGTDLONG
James Cook III
#4
311073.5111
Josh Allen
#17
6152.507
DJ Moore
#2
11111.0011
Ray Davis
#7
221.002
Ty Johnson
#26
111.001
Kyle Allen
#11
3-2-0.700
Team441343.0111

Receiving

BUFRECYDSAVGTDLONGTGTS
Khalil Shakir
#10
45814.50224
Dawson Knox
#88
4379.30125
Ty Johnson
#26
23618.00362
Dalton Kincaid
#86
3289.30123
Keleki Latu
#83
12525.01251
DJ Moore
#2
3258.30155
Keon Coleman
#0
3175.70116
Jackson Hawes
#85
188.0081
James Cook III
#4
000.0001
Ray Davis
#7
000.0001
Team2123411.113629

Fumbles

BUFFUMLOSTREC
Greg Rousseau
#15
001
Team001

Defense

BUFTOTSOLOSACKSTFLPDQB HTSTD
Terrel Bernard
#8
6200210
Dee Alford
#23
4300000
Cole Bishop
#24
4300000
TJ Parker
#99
3100000
Dorian Williams
#42
3000100
Damar Hamlin
#3
2200000
Christian Benford
#47
2200100
Te'Cory Couch
#33
2200000
Kaleb Elarms-Orr
#52
2200000
Ed Oliver
#91
2100030
Greg Rousseau
#15
1111130
Javon Solomon
#56
1111010
Michael Hoecht
#55
1100000
Tylan Grable
#68
1100000
DeWayne Carter
#90
1100000
Tommy Doman Jr.
#39
1100000
Keleki Latu
#83
1100000
Maxwell Hairston
#1
1100000
Bradley Chubb
#9
1000100
T.J. Sanders
#98
1000010
Deone Walker
#96
1000000
Davison Igbinosun
#21
1000100
Team422622790

Interceptions

BUFINTYDSTD
Terrel Bernard
#8
150
Dorian Williams
#42
100
Team250

Kick returns

BUFNOYDSAVGLONGTD
Greg Dortch
#19
15858.0580
Team15858.0580

Punt returns

BUFNOYDSAVGLONGTD
Greg Dortch
#19
2115.560
Team2115.560

Kicking

BUFFGPCTLONGXPPTS
Tyler Bass
#16
3/3100.0522/211
Team3/3100.0522/211

Punting

BUFNOYDSAVGTBIn 20LONG
Tommy Doman Jr.
#39
522845.62048
Team522845.62048

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

BUFMIN
1st Downs229
Passing 1st downs146
Rushing 1st downs81
1st downs from penalties02
3rd down efficiency7-180-8
4th down efficiency1-10-2
Total Plays7946
Total Yards339178
Yards per Play4.33.9
Total Drives1312
Passing205127
Comp/Att21/3114/32
Yards per pass5.93.7
Interceptions thrown12
Sacks-Yards Lost4-292-12
Rushing13451
Rushing Attempts4412
Yards per rush3.04.3
Red Zone (Made-Att)1-30-1
Penalties8-624-20
Turnovers13
Fumbles lost01
Defensive / Special Teams TDs00
Possession42:3217:28

Grok Expert vs the model

Two separate picks, each graded on its own record.

Grok Expert
Play of the Day · hand-picked
MIN +3+102
55% confidence
Projected BUF 21.00 – 20.00 MIN
Miss
Model
Computer pick · Spread · Strong play
MIN +3+102
55% confidence
Projected BUF 21.00 – 20.00 MIN
Miss

They agree: the model projects BUF by 1.00, which also covers MIN +3.

Why Grok Expert likes MIN +3: Home dog getting the full field goal at plus money. Minnesota is 6-1 and has allowed 16 or fewer points in four of its last five; Carson Wentz already helped win two games this year with Kyler Murray out. Buffalo is without WR Joshua Palmer and LT Dion Dawkins is questionable.

Computer pick · SpreadStrong play
MIN +3
55%

At lock BUF 21.00–20.00 MIN · BUF by 1.0 pts vs MIN +3 · 55% is the confidence saved at lock

Miss
Players

  • Prop Aaron Jones Sr. · MIN

    16 YDS · needs 17.5 more

  • Josh Allen · BUF

    21/31 C/ATT · 234 YDS

  • Carson Wentz · MIN

    8/25 C/ATT · 81 YDS

  • James Cook III · BUF

    31 CAR · 107 YDS

  • Jordan Mason · MIN

    6 CAR · 35 YDS

  • Khalil Shakir · BUF

    4 REC · 58 YDS

Data-Driven Pick · A. Jones Sr. Over 33.5 rush yds

-110Miss

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Bills vs Vikings pick result · Nov 9, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is MIN +3, with a 55% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NFL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day

Overline Sports

Projections blend power-index ratings with DraftKings lines. Every game carries a computer pick and a tagged DK prop; closed games are graded against those pre-game leans. Statistical estimates, not betting advice. Live scores, clocks, and team pages from ESPN.

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