NFLFinalArrowhead Stadium

New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs

Final · CBS

12–35

JetsChiefs

Final

New York Jets

2-7 · L4

182 PF · 223 PA

Final

Kansas City Chiefs

6-2 · W1

202 PF · 143 PA

NYJ 25%KC 75%

At lock: projected NYJ 18.82–27.91 KC

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 12:56 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1278663561

Winner called · off by 14

Most typical sim

NYJ 19 – KC 28

Final

NYJ 12 – KC 35

Winner: Chiefs (78%)
Spread: KC -8.5 covers (51%)
Total: Under 48.5 (60%)
Score error (both teams)14

Player	Line	Sim median	Actual	Lean
B. Hall rush yds	—	57	61	off 4
G. Smith pass yds	—	218	165	off -53
G. Wilson rec yds	—	59	0	off -59
A. Mitchell rec yds	—	45	0	off -45
P. Mahomes pass yds	—	251	242	off -9
K. Walker III rush yds	—	89	102	off 13
T. Kelce rec yds	—	54	72	off 18
R. Rice rec yds	—	57	49	off -8

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: NYJ vs KC

The model

How this number was built

NYJ 18.82–27.91 KC · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
KC +4.2 vs NYJ -4.9 · pred margin +9.4
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
EPA/play (opp-adj.) KC off +0.06, def stop +0.03 · NYJ off -0.04, def stop -0.05 · model KC 27.9–17.4 NYJ
Home field
+2.4 pts to KC
Record
KC 6-2 · NYJ 2-7
Market prior
Blended 67% toward KC -8.5 / total 47.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
NYJ	6	6	0	0	12
KC	0	14	14	7	35

How the points were scored

FGQ1 6:473–0
Jason Sanders 23 Yd Field Goal
FGQ1 4:356–0
Jason Sanders 48 Yd Field Goal
TDQ2 14:566–7
Kenneth Walker III 7 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)
FGQ2 8:129–7
Jason Sanders 49 Yd Field Goal
TDQ2 5:379–14
Kenneth Walker III 25 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)
FGQ2 2:1612–14
Jason Sanders 54 Yd Field Goal
TDQ3 10:2012–21
Travis Kelce 1 Yd Rush (Harrison Butker Kick)
TDQ3 0:1112–28
Kenneth Walker III 2 Yd Rush (Harrison Butker Kick)
TDQ4 3:3512–35
Emmett Johnson 6 Yd Rush (Harrison Butker Kick)

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

NYJ	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Geno Smith #7	18/32	165	5.2	0	0	5-42	19.6	70.4
Team	18/32	123	5.2	0	0	5-42	--	70.4

Rushing

NYJ	CAR	YDS	AVG	LONG
Breece Hall #20	15	61	4.1	16
Braelon Allen #0	8	33	4.1	12
Geno Smith #7	1	8	8.0	8
Isaiah Williams #18	1	4	4.0	4
Team	25	106	4.2	16

Receiving

NYJ	REC	YDS	AVG	LONG	TGTS
Omar Cooper Jr. #11	8	58	7.3	16	11
Kenyon Sadiq #16	4	49	12.3	17	4
Breece Hall #20	3	26	8.7	14	4
Braelon Allen #0	2	21	10.5	19	2
Mason Taylor #85	1	11	11.0	11	2
Adonai Mitchell #15	0	0	0.0	0	7
Team	18	165	9.2	19	30

Fumbles

NYJ	FUM	LOST	REC
Braelon Allen #0	1	1	0
Demario Davis #56	0	0	1
Will McDonald IV #9	0	0	1
Team	1	1	2

Defense

NYJ	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	QB HTS
David Bailey #31	9	5	2	3	3
Demario Davis #56	9	5	0	0	0
Jamien Sherwood #44	9	5	0	0	0
Minkah Fitzpatrick #29	8	5	0	0	0
Dane Belton #6	8	3	0	0	0
Azareye'h Thomas #1	5	2	0	0	0
Brandon Stephens #21	3	3	0	1	0
Kingsley Enagbare #52	3	3	0	1	1
Darrell Jackson Jr. #95	3	2	0	0	0
Payton Page #98	3	1	0	0	0
Jack Heflin #96	3	0	0	0	1
Will McDonald IV #9	2	0	0	0	2
D'Angelo Ponds #23	2	0	0	0	0
Geno Smith #7	1	1	0	0	0
Andrew Beck #47	1	1	0	0	0
Jarvis Brownlee Jr. #2	1	1	0	0	0
Malachi Moore #27	1	1	0	0	0
Qwan'tez Stiggers #37	1	1	0	0	0
Harrison Phillips #97	1	0	0	0	0
Malik McClain #84	1	0	0	0	0
Isaiah Davis #32	1	0	0	0	0
Jowon Briggs #91	0	0	0	0	1
Team	75	39	2	5	8

Kick returns

NYJ	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG
Kene Nwangwu #3	3	79	26.3	28
Isaiah Williams #18	2	55	27.5	28
Team	5	134	26.8	28

Punt returns

NYJ	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Isaiah Williams #18	1	18	18.0	18	0
Team	1	18	18.0	18	0

Kicking

NYJ	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Jason Sanders #19	4/5	80.0	54	0/0	12
Team	4/5	80.0	54	0/0	12

Punting

NYJ	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
Austin McNamara #14	3	158	52.7	0	0	58
Team	3	158	52.7	0	0	58

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	NYJ	KC
1st Downs	15	27
Passing 1st downs	9	16
Rushing 1st downs	6	9
1st downs from penalties	0	2
3rd down efficiency	2-12	6-11
4th down efficiency	0-2	1-1
Total Plays	62	65
Total Yards	229	391
Yards per Play	3.7	6.0
Total Drives	11	12
Passing	123	228
Comp/Att	18/32	23/31
Yards per pass	3.3	6.9
Interceptions thrown	0	0
Sacks-Yards Lost	5-42	2-14
Rushing	106	163
Rushing Attempts	25	32
Yards per rush	4.2	5.1
Red Zone (Made-Att)	0-1	4-4
Penalties	9-57	3-20
Turnovers	1	2
Fumbles lost	1	2
Defensive / Special Teams TDs	0	0
Possession	31:06	28:54

Computer pick · Total

Under 47.5

51%

At lock NYJ 18.82–27.91 KC · 0.8 pts under 47.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock

Hit

Players

Prop Kenneth Walker III · KC
102 YDS · over 90.5
Geno Smith · NYJ
18/32 C/ATT · 165 YDS
Patrick Mahomes · KC
23/31 C/ATT · 242 YDS
Breece Hall · NYJ
15 CAR · 61 YDS
Omar Cooper Jr. · NYJ
8 REC · 58 YDS
Travis Kelce · KC
4 REC · 72 YDS

Data-Driven Pick · K. Walker III Under 90.5 rush yds

Strong play-110Miss

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Jets vs Chiefs pick result · Nov 8, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 47.5, with a 51% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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