South Dakota State Jackrabbits at Northern Iowa Panthers
Final · ESPN+
41–15
At lock: projected SDST 31.26–19.80 UNI
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:38 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 489159933
- Winner: S Dakota St (52%)
- Score error (both teams)25
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: SDST vs UNI
The model
How this number was built
SDST 31.26–19.80 UNI · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -3.7 vs -0.9 · model UNI 26.4–27.4 SDST
- Home field+3.0 pts to UNI
- RecordUNI 4-5 · SDST 8-2
- Market priorBlended 80% toward SDST -15.5 / total 50.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SDST | 10 | 7 | 14 | 10 | 41 |
| UNI | 0 | 7 | 0 | 8 | 15 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ1 7:197–0
Jack Smith 22 Yd pass from Chase Mason (Tristan Alvano Kick)
- FGQ1 3:0010–0
Tristan Alvano 50 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ2 4:3417–0
Josiah Johnson 1 Yd Run (Tristan Alvano Kick)
- TDQ2 0:4217–7
Xavier Terrell 5 Yd Run (Blake Pankratz Kick)
- TDQ3 5:1824–7
Josiah Johnson 3 Yd Run (Tristan Alvano Kick)
- TDQ3 2:5531–7
Brayden Delahoyde 8 Yd pass from Chase Mason (Tristan Alvano Kick)
- TDQ4 14:4538–7
James Basinger 63 Yd Run (Tristan Alvano Kick)
- TDQ4 11:1538–15
Briggs Hughston 8 Yd pass from Jaxon Dailey (Jaxon Dailey Pass to Tay Norman for Two-Point Conversion)
- FGQ4 7:3441–15
Tristan Alvano 42 Yd Field Goal
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| SDST | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | adjQBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Chase Mason #7 | 10/18 | 181 | 10.1 | 2 | 0 | — |
 Josh Holst #11 | 3/4 | 27 | 6.8 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Team | 13/22 | 208 | 9.5 | 2 | 0 | — |
Rushing
| SDST | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Josiah Johnson #22 | 14 | 109 | 7.8 | 2 | 32 |
 James Basinger #23 | 9 | 102 | 11.3 | 1 | 63 |
Chase Mason #7 | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 0 | 10 |
Josh Holst #11 | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 | 14 |
 Ramon McKinney Jr. #6 | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 | 7 |
Team | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 35 | 259 | 7.4 | 3 | 63 |
Receiving
| SDST | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lofton O'Groske #1 | 3 | 69 | 23.0 | 0 | 37 |
 Jack Smith #2 | 4 | 62 | 15.5 | 1 | 29 |
 Brayden Delahoyde #10 | 2 | 37 | 18.5 | 1 | 29 |
 Joe Kolega #3 | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 | 14 |
 Grahm Goering #12 | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 | 11 |
 Coleman Kuntz #82 | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | 9 |
 Sammy Dresie #8 | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | 6 |
| Team | 13 | 208 | 16.0 | 2 | 37 |
Defense
| SDST | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jes Krcil #18 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Cullen McShane #5 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Chase Van Tol #28 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Amaje Parker #2 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Max Stanard #24 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Brody Targgart #52 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Michael Farr III #4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Noah Thompson #27 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Bergan Tetzlaff #36 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Noah St-Juste #7 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Dawson Ripperda #99 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Ife Current #1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Carter Sitzman #0 | 3 | 1 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Logan Green #51 | 3 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Jace Sifore #91 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Joe Ollman #11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kytan Fyfe #47 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Reis Kirschenman #8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Blake Leiferman #97 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Bryce Johnson #33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Myles Green #21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Liam Shaw #40 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 88 | 24 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Kick returns
| SDST | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Myles Green #21 | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
Punt returns
| SDST | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Myles Green #21 | 3 | 34 | 11.3 | 28 | 0 |
| Team | 3 | 34 | 11.3 | 28 | 0 |
Kicking
| SDST | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tristan Alvano #30 | 2/2 | 100.0 | 50 | 5/5 | 11 |
| Team | 2/2 | 100.0 | 50 | 5/5 | 11 |
Punting
| SDST | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Max Pelham #41 | 2 | 95 | 47.5 | 0 | 1 | 48 |
| Team | 2 | 95 | 47.5 | 0 | 1 | 48 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| SDST | UNI | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 20 | 17 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 3-8 | 5-16 |
| 4th down efficiency | 0-0 | 3-6 |
| Total Yards | 467 | 260 |
| Passing | 208 | 186 |
| Comp/Att | 13/22 | 25/41 |
| Yards per pass | 9.5 | 4.5 |
| Rushing | 259 | 74 |
| Rushing Attempts | 35 | 31 |
| Yards per rush | 7.4 | 2.4 |
| Penalties | 8-74 | 6-37 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 0 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 | 0 |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 0 |
| Possession | 26:24 | 33:36 |
At lock SDST 31.26–19.80 UNI · SDST by 11.5 pts vs UNI +14 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
MissChase Mason · SDST
10/18 C/ATT · 181 YDSJaxon Dailey · UNI
23/39 C/ATT · 177 YDSJosiah Johnson · SDST
14 CAR · 109 YDSChristian Collins · UNI
7 CAR · 27 YDSLofton O'Groske · SDST
3 REC · 69 YDSTaj Hughes · UNI
5 REC · 54 YDS
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
S Dakota St vs Northern Iowa pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is UNI +14, with a 52% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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