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NationsMNEatCYP8:00 AM CTNationsARMatLVA8:00 AM CTNFLNEatDET8:30 AM CTNCAABABABACatFGCU11:00 AM CTNCAABQUINatCCSU11:00 AM CTNationsALBatBLR11:00 AM CTNationsSMRatFIN11:00 AM CTNFLKCatATL12:00 PM CTNFLHOUatCLE12:00 PM CTNFLMINatGB12:00 PM CTNFLJAXatTEN12:00 PM CTNFLMIAatIND12:00 PM CT
Board/NCAAF
NCAAFFinal/OTRobert W. Plaster Stadium

New Mexico State Aggies at Missouri State Bears

Final/OT · ESPN+

New Mexico St21–27Missouri St
New Mexico StMissouri St
Final
New Mexico State Aggies
3-7 · L3
207 PF · 259 PA
21
Final
Final/OT
Missouri State Bears
4-6 · W1
242 PF · 291 PA
27
NMSU 45%MOST 55%

At lock: projected NMSU 23.38–25.49 MOST

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 13, 2:10 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3490829231

Winner called · off by 5
Most typical sim
NMSU 24 – MOST 25
Final
NMSU 21 – MOST 27
  • Winner: Missouri St (55%)
  • Spread: MOST -1.5 covers (53%)
  • Total: Under 49.5 (53%)
  • Score error (both teams)5

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: NMSU vs MOST

The model

How this number was built

NMSU 23.38–25.49 MOST · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

  • Power index
    MOST -15.3 vs NMSU -15.3 · pred margin +2.1
  • Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
    Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -2.9 vs -3.2 · model MOST 27.0–23.2 NMSU
  • Home field
    +3.0 pts to MOST
  • Record
    MOST 4-6 · NMSU 3-7
  • Market prior
    Blended 66% toward MOST -1.5 / total 49.5
Full write-up of the model

Line score

Q1Q2Q3Q4OTT
NMSU0777021
MOST01407627

How the points were scored

  • TDQ2 13:130–7

    Dylan Brooks 15 Yd Interception Return (Yousef Obeid Kick)

  • TDQ2 10:017–7

    Brodie Malone-Bradford 17 Yd pass from Trey Hedden (Kyah Francone Kick)

  • TDQ2 1:087–14

    Jmariyae Robinson 9 Yd pass from Henry Belin IV (Yousef Obeid Kick)

  • TDQ3 4:4714–14

    TJ Washington Jr. 14 Yd pass from Trey Hedden (Kyah Francone Kick)

  • TDQ4 9:0921–14

    James Jones 1 Yd Run (Kyah Francone Kick)

  • TDQ4 0:5621–21

    Connor Lair 5 Yd Run (Yousef Obeid Kick)

  • TDOT 0:0021–27

    Joel Boamah 88 Yd Interception Return

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

NMSUC/ATTYDSAVGTDINTQBR
Trey Hedden
#3
11/281103.92211.7
Team11/281103.922--

Rushing

NMSUCARYDSAVGTDLONG
James Jones
#2
251506.0131
TJ Washington Jr.
#0
151077.1016
Dijon Stanley
#8
294.507
Trey Hedden
#3
2-13-6.500
Team442535.8131

Receiving

NMSURECYDSAVGTDLONG
AJ Williams III
#11
33812.7016
Brodie Malone-Bradford
#6
11717.0117
Terrione Graves
#9
3165.3014
Carson Su'esu'e
#88
11515.0015
TJ Washington Jr.
#0
11414.0114
James Jones
#2
166.006
Isaiah Rudison
#21
144.004
Team1111010.0217

Fumbles

NMSUFUMLOSTREC
James Jones
#2
110
Team110

Defense

NMSUTOTSOLOSACKSTFLPDQB HURTD
Tory Gethers
#6
9402.5020
Nick Session
#5
6300000
Kaian Roberts-Day
#13
5200000
Gabe Peterson
#16
5200.5100
Jakobe Campbell
#26
4300010
Lorenzo Smith
#0
4300000
Reeves Baller
#99
4200000
De'Marcus Peters
#4
3301100
Sone Aupiu
#14
3200000
Josiah Charles
#1
3201100
Javon Gillespie
#2
2100000
Obinna Okeke
#15
2000010
Jason Gwan
#98
2000000
Brody Richter
#91
1100000
Drake Williams
#24
1100000
Chance Barron
#10
1100000
DJ Cloyd
#20
1100000
Zhakius Thomas
#21
1100000
Fa'apaia Fualema
#42
1100000
Demanuel Brown
#30
1000000
Brad Vislisel
#8
1000000
RJ Chapman
#22
1000000
Enzo-Pierre Tayou
#44
1000000
Henry Davis III
#97
1000010
Team633305350

Interceptions

NMSUINTYDSTD
De'Marcus Peters
#4
1110
Team1110

Kick returns

NMSUNOYDSAVGLONGTD
Dijon Stanley
#8
26030.0430
TJ Washington Jr.
#0
12222.0220
Team38227.3430

Punt returns

NMSUNOYDSAVGLONGTD
TJ Pride
#7
3113.780
Team3113.780

Kicking

NMSUFGPCTLONGXPPTS
Kyah Francone
#40
0/10.003/33
Team0/10.003/33

Punting

NMSUNOYDSAVGTBIn 20LONG
Brody Richter
#91
837446.80564
Team837446.80564

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

NMSUMOST
1st Downs1717
3rd down efficiency5-153-13
4th down efficiency0-01-3
Total Yards363292
Passing110187
Comp/Att11/2820/37
Yards per pass3.95.1
Rushing253105
Rushing Attempts4429
Yards per rush5.83.6
Penalties12-1154-40
Turnovers31
Fumbles lost10
Interceptions thrown21
Possession33:1626:44
Lean · SpreadNot a strong playHit
MOST -1.5
-108 at lock51%

Model projected NMSU 23.38 – 25.49 MOST at lock · below the strong-play bar (edge -1.4%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet

Players

  • Trey Hedden · NMSU

    11/28 C/ATT · 110 YDS

  • Henry Belin IV · MOST

    20/37 C/ATT · 187 YDS

  • James Jones · NMSU

    25 CAR · 150 YDS

  • Connor Lair · MOST

    11 CAR · 46 YDS

  • AJ Williams III · NMSU

    3 REC · 38 YDS

  • Isaiah Myers · MOST

    5 REC · 89 YDS

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

New Mexico St vs Missouri St pick result · Nov 14, 2026

Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NCAAF picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day

Overline Sports

Projections blend power-index ratings with DraftKings lines. Every game carries a computer pick and a tagged DK prop; closed games are graded against those pre-game leans. Statistical estimates, not betting advice. Live scores, clocks, and team pages from ESPN.

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