Marshall Thundering Herd at Georgia Southern Eagles
Final · ESPN+
13–49
At lock: projected MRSH 22.41–31.62 GASO
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 7:12 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2684881554
- Winner: GA Southern (72%)
- Spread: MRSH +10.5 covers (53%)
- Total: Under 54.5 (51%)
- Score error (both teams)26
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: MRSH vs GASO
The model
How this number was built
MRSH 22.41–31.62 GASO · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexGASO -2.0 vs MRSH -15.7 · pred margin +8.7
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +3.3 vs -3.7 · model GASO 33.6–19.5 MRSH
- Home field+3.0 pts to GASO
- RecordGASO 5-4 · MRSH 5-4
- Market priorBlended 80% toward GASO -7 / total 54.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRSH | 7 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 13 |
| GASO | 14 | 7 | 14 | 14 | 49 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ1 3:110–7
Jeremiah Ware 23 Yd pass from Max Johnson (Tripp Bryant Kick)
- TDQ1 3:040–14
Chace Calicut 24 Yd Interception Return (Tripp Bryant Kick)
- TDQ1 2:087–14
Jo'Shon Barbie 45 Yd Run (Jorge Diaz Nicolas Kick)
- TDQ2 5:117–21
Alex Taylor 70 Yd pass from Max Johnson (Tripp Bryant Kick)
- TDQ3 8:317–28
Andre Greene Jr. 1 Yd pass from Max Johnson (Tripp Bryant Kick)
- TDQ3 1:357–35
Jeremiah Ware 45 Yd pass from Max Johnson (Tripp Bryant Kick)
- TDQ4 14:527–42
Max Johnson 16 Yd Run (Tripp Bryant Kick)
- TDQ4 9:127–49
Ty Cummings 16 Yd Run (Tripp Bryant Kick)
- TDQ4 7:0413–49
Khalil Wilkins 66 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| MRSH | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Zion Turner #1 | 11/26 | 141 | 5.4 | 0 | 2 | 9.4 |
 Khalil Wilkins #4 | 2/3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 | 0 | 97.4 |
| Team | 13/29 | 162 | 5.6 | 0 | 2 | -- |
Rushing
| MRSH | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jo'Shon Barbie #6 | 12 | 83 | 6.9 | 1 | 45 |
Khalil Wilkins #4 | 3 | 67 | 22.3 | 1 | 66 |
 Judah Price #10 | 7 | 39 | 5.6 | 0 | 23 |
 TJ Lester #21 | 8 | 31 | 3.9 | 0 | 9 |
 Anthony Quinn Jr. #22 | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 0 | 17 |
Zion Turner #1 | 6 | 8 | 1.3 | 0 | 7 |
| Team | 39 | 250 | 6.4 | 2 | 66 |
Receiving
| MRSH | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Owen Sweeney #20 | 4 | 46 | 11.5 | 0 | 32 |
 Chris Culliver #3 | 1 | 28 | 28.0 | 0 | 28 |
 Xayvion Turner-Bradshaw #5 | 2 | 25 | 12.5 | 0 | 20 |
Judah Price #10 | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 | 15 |
 Jalyn Abercrombie #16 | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 | 15 |
Khalil Wilkins #4 | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 | 11 |
 Adrian Norton #2 | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 | 10 |
Jo'Shon Barbie #6 | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | 6 |
 Tracy Stephens #85 | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | 6 |
| Team | 13 | 162 | 12.5 | 0 | 32 |
Fumbles
| MRSH | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
Owen Sweeney #20 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Defense
| MRSH | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jalen Marshall #6 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Javae Gilmore #5 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kelvon McBride #7 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kenyatta Hardge #44 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Terrente Hinton #3 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Cannon Lewis #27 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Cole Funderburk #55 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Eddie Pleasant III #8 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Daytione Smith #17 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Caleb Clark-Glover #0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Brayden Hall #9 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Mekhi Lockhart #49 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Pete Schuh #32 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Charles McCartherens #2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jacarius Clayton #24 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Josh Pierre-Louis #11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jason Haggerty #29 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Braydin Ward #58 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Cam Chmura #92 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Tristan Lester #15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Andre Parker #33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 68 | 36 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Kick returns
| MRSH | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chris Culliver #3 | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 9 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 9 | 0 |
Punt returns
| MRSH | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Josiah McLaurin #15 | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 | 0 |
Kicking
| MRSH | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jorge Diaz Nicolas #41 | 0/1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1/1 | 1 |
| Team | 0/1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1/1 | 1 |
Punting
| MRSH | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Cooper Heimbach #91 | 7 | 318 | 45.4 | 0 | 1 | 57 |
| Team | 7 | 318 | 45.4 | 0 | 1 | 57 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| MRSH | GASO | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 21 | 21 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 4-13 | 5-12 |
| 4th down efficiency | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Total Yards | 412 | 454 |
| Passing | 162 | 287 |
| Comp/Att | 13/29 | 21/30 |
| Yards per pass | 5.6 | 9.6 |
| Rushing | 250 | 167 |
| Rushing Attempts | 39 | 33 |
| Yards per rush | 6.4 | 5.1 |
| Penalties | 5-55 | 8-79 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 0 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 | 0 |
| Interceptions thrown | 2 | 0 |
| Possession | 29:05 | 30:55 |
At lock MRSH 22.41–31.62 GASO · GASO by 9.2 pts vs MRSH +10 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock
MissZion Turner · MRSH
11/26 C/ATT · 141 YDSMax Johnson · GASO
19/26 C/ATT · 271 YDSJo'Shon Barbie · MRSH
12 CAR · 83 YDSTyrese Woodgett · GASO
6 CAR · 41 YDSOwen Sweeney · MRSH
4 REC · 46 YDSJeremiah Ware · GASO
5 REC · 94 YDS
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Marshall vs GA Southern pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is MRSH +10, with a 51% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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