NCAAFFinalEddie G. Robinson Memorial Stadium

Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions at Grambling Tigers

Final · SWAC TV

35–32

AR-Pine BluffGrambling

Final

Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions

6-3

Final

Grambling Tigers

4-5

UAPB 52%GRAM 48%

At lock: projected UAPB 31.40–30.75 GRAM

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:38 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 714176193

Missed · off by 10

Most typical sim

UAPB 28 – GRAM 29

Final

UAPB 35 – GRAM 32

Winner: Grambling (52%)
Score error (both teams)10

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: UAPB vs GRAM

The model

How this number was built

UAPB 31.40–30.75 GRAM · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -5.6 vs -4.2 · model GRAM 29.2–28.1 UAPB
Home field
+3.0 pts to GRAM
Record
GRAM 4-5 · UAPB 6-3
Market prior
Blended 66% toward UAPB -1.5 / total 64.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
UAPB	7	14	0	14	35
GRAM	3	16	6	7	32

How the points were scored

FGQ1 4:280–3
Theodore Caballero 33 Yd Field Goal
TDQ1 3:087–3
Jalen Williams 1 Yd Run (Trey Glymph Kick)
TDQ2 13:317–10
D'Shuan Ford 12 Yd Run (Theodore Caballero Kick)
TDQ2 12:5614–10
Jack Schierholz 20 Yd Run (Trey Glymph Kick)
TDQ2 7:4321–10
Demetric Whitlock 82 Yd pass from Jack Schierholz (Trey Glymph Kick)
TDQ2 7:2621–16
Jordan Bride 73 Yd Kickoff Return (Theodore Caballero PAT failed)
FGQ2 0:0621–19
Theodore Caballero 37 Yd Field Goal
FGQ3 8:2721–22
Theodore Caballero 20 Yd Field Goal
FGQ3 0:4721–25
Theodore Caballero 41 Yd Field Goal
TDQ4 8:1628–25
Jaylen Jennings 3 Yd Run (Trey Glymph Kick)
TDQ4 5:5735–25
Daedae Allen 76 Yd Punt Return (Trey Glymph Kick)
TDQ4 5:4135–32
Byron Eaton Jr. 78 Yd pass from Jacobe Robinson (Theodore Caballero Kick)

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

UAPB	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	adjQBR
Jack Schierholz #12	10/19	208	10.9	1	0	—
Team	10/19	208	10.9	1	0	—

Rushing

UAPB	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Jack Schierholz #12	9	80	8.9	1	59
Za'Marion Webber #5	11	77	7.0	0	30
Jaylen Jennings #1	10	27	2.7	1	6
Jalen Williams #3	5	16	3.2	1	8
Team	1	-1	-1.0	0	0
George Wiles-Koehler #97	1	-1	-1.0	0	0
Team	37	198	5.4	3	59

Receiving

UAPB	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Demetric Whitlock #17	5	107	21.4	1	82
D'Avery Robinson #2	4	53	13.3	0	27
Daedae Allen #18	1	48	48.0	0	48
Team	10	208	20.8	1	82

Fumbles

UAPB	FUM	LOST	REC
Jack Schierholz #12	1	1	0
Team	0	0	1
Team	1	1	1

Defense

UAPB	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HUR	TD
Du'Wayne Paulhill Jr. #27	11	6	0	0	1	0	0
Camare Jackson #28	9	5	0	0	1	0	0
Jameson Mosley #46	8	4	0	1	0	0	0
Danarius Hilliard #0	7	6	0	1	0	0	0
Derron Moore #14	7	0	0	0.5	0	0	0
Derick Simon Jr. #90	4	4	2	2	0	2	0
Amajah Lewis #49	4	1	0	0	0	0	0
Josh Narcisse #93	4	1	0	0	0	0	0
Raylen Spratt #24	3	2	0	0	0	0	0
Marquis Cagle #91	3	2	0	1	0	0	0
Keiyhaun Wilks #98	3	2	0	0	0	0	0
JaiTeriyas Robinson #21	2	2	0	1	2	1	0
Nate Walker #50	2	2	0	0	0	1	0
Javien Blanks #58	2	1	1	1.5	0	0	0
Michael Henderson #35	2	1	0	0	0	0	0
Tylan Cole #11	2	0	0	0	0	3	0
Chase Smith #20	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
Beau Bruins #29	1	1	0	1	0	0	0
Bryson Williams #37	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
Na'il Johnson #38	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Malachi McDonald #99	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Daedae Allen #18	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
Luey Jaime #41	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team	78	42	3	9	4	8	1

Kick returns

UAPB	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG
Jalen Williams #3	1	29	29.0	29
Dwayne Simmons #87	1	0	0.0	0
Beau Bruins #29	1	0	0.0	0
Troyce Grimsley #88	1	0	0.0	0
Team	4	29	7.3	29

Punt returns

UAPB	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Daedae Allen #18	1	76	76.0	76	1
Team	1	76	76.0	76	1

Kicking

UAPB	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Trey Glymph #48	0/0	0.0	0	5/5	5
Team	0/0	0.0	0	5/5	5

Punting

UAPB	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	LONG
George Wiles-Koehler #97	3	127	42.3	2	50
Jack Schierholz #12	2	50	25.0	1	43
Team	5	177	35.4	3	50

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	UAPB	GRAM
1st Downs	18	21
3rd down efficiency	4-11	5-16
4th down efficiency	1-2	2-2
Total Yards	406	408
Passing	208	233
Comp/Att	10/19	21/35
Yards per pass	10.9	6.7
Rushing	198	175
Rushing Attempts	37	40
Yards per rush	5.4	4.4
Penalties	3-25	7-65
Turnovers	1	1
Fumbles lost	1	1
Interceptions thrown	0	0
Possession	25:36	34:24

Computer pick · Spread

GRAM +1.5

51%

At lock UAPB 31.40–30.75 GRAM · UAPB by 0.6 pts vs GRAM +1.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock

Miss

Players

Jack Schierholz · UAPB
10/19 C/ATT · 208 YDS
Jacobe Robinson · GRAM
15/23 C/ATT · 203 YDS
Jamarion Parker · GRAM
14 CAR · 116 YDS
Demetric Whitlock · UAPB
5 REC · 107 YDS
Byron Eaton Jr. · GRAM
3 REC · 91 YDS
Du'Wayne Paulhill Jr. · UAPB
11 TOT · 6 SOLO

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

AR-Pine Bluff vs Grambling pick result · Nov 7, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is GRAM +1.5, with a 51% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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