Furman Paladins at The Citadel Bulldogs
Final · ESPN+
24–14
At lock: projected FUR 23.58–22.70 CIT
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:38 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 875897947
- Winner: The Citadel (58%)
- Score error (both teams)17
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: FUR vs CIT
The model
How this number was built
FUR 23.58–22.70 CIT · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -3.7 vs -3.6 · model CIT 29.2–26.0 FUR
- Home field+3.0 pts to CIT
- RecordCIT 2-8 · FUR 3-7
- Market priorBlended 66% toward FUR -3 / total 41.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FUR | 14 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 24 |
| CIT | 7 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 14 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ1 7:470–7
Nick Billoups 10 Yd Run (Evan Kiely Kick)
- TDQ1 3:187–7
Ben Croasdale 1 Yd Run (Nathan Chapman Kick)
- TDQ1 0:3314–7
Ben Croasdale 3 Yd pass from Jake Garcia (Nathan Chapman Kick)
- FGQ3 7:1517–7
Nathan Chapman 20 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ3 0:1717–14
Nick Billoups 2 Yd Run (Evan Kiely Kick)
- TDQ4 5:2224–14
Ben Croasdale 40 Yd Run (Nathan Chapman Kick)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| FUR | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | adjQBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jake Garcia #11 | 15/24 | 127 | 5.3 | 1 | 0 | — |
| Team | 15/24 | 127 | 5.3 | 1 | 0 | — |
Rushing
| FUR | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ben Croasdale #25 | 24 | 109 | 4.5 | 2 | 40 |
Jake Garcia #11 | 5 | 1 | 0.2 | 0 | 12 |
 C.J. Stokes #23 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 | 4 |
 Isaiah Davis #26 | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 34 | 110 | 3.2 | 2 | 40 |
Receiving
| FUR | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 John Holbrook #87 | 3 | 43 | 14.3 | 0 | 25 |
 Daniel Haughton #12 | 3 | 39 | 13.0 | 0 | 24 |
 Nick Segarra #82 | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 | 15 |
 Luke Shields #13 | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 | 8 |
Ben Croasdale #25 | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 1 | 7 |
 Connor Morin #2 | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | 6 |
C.J. Stokes #23 | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | 3 |
 Gram Smithson #80 | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 15 | 127 | 8.5 | 1 | 25 |
Fumbles
| FUR | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
Jake Garcia #11 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Joshua Tarver #6 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 CJ Nettles #6 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Caldwell Bussey #94 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 3 | 0 | 1 |
Defense
| FUR | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Raleigh Herbert #24 | 16 | 7 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Caleb Ellison #17 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 AK Burrell #3 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Joshua Tarver #6 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Caleb Easterling #1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Garrison Butler #7 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Daco Coleman #4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Aaron Davis #14 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Billy Lewis #21 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Joshua Stoneking #95 | 4 | 1 | 0.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Ty Kauserud #0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Trae Williams #2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
 Eli Lipscomb #9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Javaris Jones #12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Demetrius Baldwin #93 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Caldwell Bussey #94 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Nick Simmons #33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Trevor Short #11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Ethan Washington #28 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Will McQueen #38 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Isaiah Davis #26 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Banks Bouton #9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 94 | 38 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Punt returns
| FUR | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Joshua Tarver #6 | 0 | 24 | 0.0 | 24 | 0 |
CJ Nettles #6 | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Team | 2 | 28 | 14.0 | 24 | 0 |
Kicking
| FUR | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Nathan Chapman #81 | 1/1 | 100.0 | 20 | 3/3 | 6 |
| Team | 1/1 | 100.0 | 20 | 3/3 | 6 |
Punting
| FUR | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Gray Gitter #96 | 7 | 276 | 39.4 | 0 | 2 | 46 |
| Team | 7 | 276 | 39.4 | 0 | 2 | 46 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| FUR | CIT | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 14 | 21 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 4-13 | 7-16 |
| 4th down efficiency | 1-1 | 2-4 |
| Total Yards | 237 | 361 |
| Passing | 127 | 120 |
| Comp/Att | 15/24 | 11/20 |
| Yards per pass | 5.3 | 6.0 |
| Rushing | 110 | 241 |
| Rushing Attempts | 34 | 57 |
| Yards per rush | 3.2 | 4.2 |
| Penalties | 8-80 | 8-75 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 1 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 | 1 |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 0 |
| Possession | 22:47 | 37:13 |
At lock FUR 23.58–22.70 CIT · FUR by 0.9 pts vs CIT +3 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
MissJake Garcia · FUR
15/24 C/ATT · 127 YDSNick Billoups · CIT
11/20 C/ATT · 120 YDSBen Croasdale · FUR
24 CAR · 109 YDSJohn Holbrook · FUR
3 REC · 43 YDSDamir Abdullah · CIT
3 REC · 41 YDSRaleigh Herbert · FUR
16 TOT · 7 SOLO
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Furman vs The Citadel pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is CIT +3, with a 52% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAF picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day