NCAAFFinalSpinks-Casem Stadium

Florida A&M Rattlers at Alcorn State Braves

Final · SWAC TV

20–38

Florida A&MAlcorn St

Final

Florida A&M Rattlers

2-8

Final

Alcorn State Braves

6-4

FAMU 31%ALCN 69%

At lock: projected FAMU 26.35–34.23 ALCN

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:38 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 775379328

Winner called · off by 15

Most typical sim

FAMU 27 – ALCN 30

Final

FAMU 20 – ALCN 38

Winner: Alcorn St (59%)
Score error (both teams)15

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: FAMU vs ALCN

The model

How this number was built

FAMU 26.35–34.23 ALCN · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -4.8 vs -5.2 · model ALCN 30.2–26.4 FAMU
Home field
+3.0 pts to ALCN
Record
ALCN 6-4 · FAMU 2-8
Market prior
Blended 66% toward ALCN -10 / total 60.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
FAMU	14	0	3	3	20
ALCN	7	7	10	14	38

How the points were scored

TDQ1 10:157–0
Corey Petty 16 Yd pass from Armond Parker (Gabriel Perez Kick)
TDQ1 4:4314–0
Kieren Jackson 84 Yd pass from Armond Parker (Gabriel Perez Kick)
TDQ1 1:2514–7
Malachi Augustus 92 Yd pass from Jaylon Tolbert (Kenyon Bowyer Kick)
TDQ2 6:3314–14
Malachi Augustus 10 Yd pass from Jaylon Tolbert (Kenyon Bowyer Kick)
FGQ3 10:1514–17
Kenyon Bowyer 40 Yd Field Goal
FGQ3 0:1217–17
Gabriel Perez 25 Yd Field Goal
TDQ3 0:0017–24
Malachi Augustus 63 Yd pass from Jaylon Tolbert (Kenyon Bowyer Kick)
FGQ4 11:2220–24
Gabriel Perez 34 Yd Field Goal
TDQ4 7:5620–31
Damien Jones 7 Yd pass from Jaylon Tolbert (Kenyon Bowyer Kick)
TDQ4 4:1720–38
Fredrick Robertson 1 Yd Run (Kenyon Bowyer Kick)

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

FAMU	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	adjQBR
A Armond Parker #8	20/36	283	7.9	2	1	—
Team	20/36	283	7.9	2	1	—

Rushing

FAMU	CAR	YDS	AVG	LONG
Jamal Hailey #2	9	45	5.0	14
Chase Gillespie #7	11	38	3.5	8
A Armond Parker #8	7	-24	-3.4	4
Team	27	59	2.2	14

Receiving

FAMU	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
K Kieren Jackson #3	4	133	33.3	1	84
C Corey Petty #0	9	100	11.1	1	21
J Jaden Outar #25	2	19	9.5	0	10
Jamar Taylor #13	2	16	8.0	0	9
T Tian Wynche #11	1	10	10.0	0	10
Armand Burris #87	1	5	5.0	0	5
Jamal Hailey #2	1	0	0.0	0	0
Team	20	283	14.2	2	84

Fumbles

FAMU	FUM	LOST	REC
Anthony Baxter #31	0	0	1
Team	0	0	1

Defense

FAMU	TOT	SOLO	TFL	PD
Denzel Johnson #12	16	7	1	0
Dion Villiers #23	10	3	0.5	0
Ryan Johnson #44	8	2	0	0
Andre Powell Jr. #7	5	3	0.5	0
P Paul Gatley #96	5	1	0	0
I Isaiah Morrison #4	5	0	0.5	0
Antonio Camon #8	4	1	0	0
Justin Bostic #13	3	2	0	0
O Omari Kinsler #0	3	1	0	0
Mazio Randall #94	3	0	0	0
Terrell James #91	2	0	0	0
Daylyn Diston #14	2	0	0	1
Andrew Ritter #24	2	0	0	0
S Semaj Jackson	2	0	0	0
Adrien Medine #93	2	0	0	0
M Mike Peterson Jr #15	1	1	0	0
Ryan Hall #35	1	1	0	0
W Wynton Jones Jr #24	1	1	0	0
Anthony Rosier #33	1	0	0	0
Luke Collins #88	1	0	0	0
DJ Jones #95	1	0	0	0
Bobby Engstler #38	1	0	0	0
Adeon Farmer #26	1	0	0	0
Anthony Baxter #31	1	0	0.5	0
J Johnny Hutton III #27	1	0	0	0
D David Okechuwku #37	1	0	0	1
Team	83	23	3	2

Interceptions

FAMU	INT	YDS	TD
Anthony Baxter #31	1	0	0
Team	1	0	0

Kick returns

FAMU	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG
K Kieren Jackson #3	2	32	16.0	30
Jamal Hailey #2	1	2	2.0	2
Team	3	34	11.3	30

Punt returns

FAMU	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Anthony Baxter #31	1	0	0.0	0	0
Team	1	0	0.0	0	0

Kicking

FAMU	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Gabriel Perez #30	2/2	100.0	34	2/2	8
Team	2/2	100.0	34	2/2	8

Punting

FAMU	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
Bobby Engstler #38	3	92	30.7	0	1	37
Team	3	92	30.7	0	1	37

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	FAMU	ALCN
1st Downs	18	23
3rd down efficiency	2-12	8-13
4th down efficiency	1-4	1-1
Total Yards	342	546
Passing	283	314
Comp/Att	20/36	16/23
Yards per pass	7.9	13.7
Rushing	59	232
Rushing Attempts	27	45
Yards per rush	2.2	5.2
Penalties	3-15	10-116
Turnovers	1	2
Fumbles lost	0	1
Interceptions thrown	1	1
Possession	28:31	31:29

Computer pick · Spread

FAMU +10

52%

At lock FAMU 26.35–34.23 ALCN · ALCN by 7.9 pts vs FAMU +10 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock

Miss

Players

Armond Parker · FAMU
20/36 C/ATT · 283 YDS
Jaylon Tolbert · ALCN
16/23 C/ATT · 314 YDS
Jamal Hailey · FAMU
9 CAR · 45 YDS
Fredrick Robertson · ALCN
19 CAR · 96 YDS
Kieren Jackson · FAMU
4 REC · 133 YDS
Malachi Augustus · ALCN
4 REC · 171 YDS

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Florida A&M vs Alcorn St pick result · Nov 7, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is FAMU +10, with a 52% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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