NCAAFFinalWilliam B. Greene Jr. Stadium

Samford Bulldogs at East Tennessee State Buccaneers

Final · ESPN+

37–35

SamfordETSU

Final

Samford Bulldogs

4-6

Final

East Tennessee State Buccaneers

6-4

SAM 26%ETSU 74%

At lock: projected SAM 18.65–29.32 ETSU

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:38 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3074060226

Missed · off by 19

Most typical sim

SAM 25 – ETSU 28

Final

SAM 37 – ETSU 35

Winner: ETSU (59%)
Score error (both teams)19

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: SAM vs ETSU

The model

How this number was built

SAM 18.65–29.32 ETSU · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -3.8 vs -3.8 · model ETSU 28.3–25.0 SAM
Home field
+3.0 pts to ETSU
Record
ETSU 6-4 · SAM 4-6
Market prior
Blended 80% toward ETSU -13.5 / total 48.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
SAM	3	10	10	14	37
ETSU	7	14	7	7	35

How the points were scored

FGQ1 2:433–0
Ty Ippolito 42 Yd Field Goal
TDQ1 0:083–7
TJ Peyton 8 Yd Run (Ewan Johnson Kick)
TDQ2 13:5210–7
Kevonte Corbin 27 Yd pass from Will Shields (Ty Ippolito Kick)
TDQ2 13:2510–14
Jaiden Daniels 57 Yd Run (Ewan Johnson Kick)
FGQ2 6:5013–14
Ty Ippolito 34 Yd Field Goal
TDQ2 2:3713–21
Jason Albritton 1 Yd Run (Ewan Johnson Kick)
FGQ3 8:0216–21
Ty Ippolito 25 Yd Field Goal
TDQ3 1:3316–28
Charlie Browder 8 Yd pass from Mason Mims (Ewan Johnson Kick)
TDQ3 1:1923–28
Kevonte Corbin 100 Yd Kickoff Return (Ty Ippolito Kick)
TDQ4 14:5331–28
Gabarri Johnson 4 Yd Run (Gabarri Johnson Pass to Marquise Henderson for Two-Point Conversion)
TDQ4 0:5731–35
Brandon Winton 10 Yd pass from Mason Mims (Ewan Johnson Kick)
TDQ4 0:0037–35
Domonique Thomas 7 Yd pass from Gabarri Johnson

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

SAM	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	adjQBR
Gabarri Johnson #8	19/32	168	5.3	1	—
W Will Shields #9	4/7	56	8.0	1	—
Team	23/39	224	5.7	2	—

Rushing

SAM	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Gabarri Johnson #8	9	41	4.6	1	26
Domonique Thomas #7	11	25	2.3	0	7
Emerson Russell #38	2	12	6.0	0	10
M Marquise Henderson #3	2	9	4.5	0	5
Ken Cherry #22	5	7	1.4	0	4
Cam Bland #29	2	5	2.5	0	3
Team	31	99	3.2	1	26

Receiving

SAM	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Preston Bird #4	4	57	14.3	0	18
K Kevonte Corbin #0	2	45	22.5	1	27
C Cayden Aukerman #13	4	38	9.5	0	15
Domonique Thomas #7	4	25	6.3	1	11
M Marquise Henderson #3	3	25	8.3	0	13
Maddox McKim #11	2	18	9.0	0	9
Ryan Skinner #39	1	8	8.0	0	8
LaShon Young #9	1	5	5.0	0	5
Nicholas Bookman #85	1	3	3.0	0	3
Emerson Russell #38	1	0	0.0	0	0
Team	23	224	9.7	2	27

Fumbles

SAM	FUM	LOST	REC
Keion Dunlap #2	0	0	1
Team	0	0	1

Defense

SAM	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HUR	TD
Keion Dunlap #2	8	6	1	1	0	0	0
Dylon Henderson #4	8	4	0	0	2	0	0
LaShon Young #9	7	5	0	0	0	0	0
Spencer Conn #34	7	4	1	1	0	0	0
Jalen Nelson #6	7	3	0	0	0	0	0
M Max Steve #14	5	3	0	0	0	0	0
J Julian Campos #44	5	2	0	0	0	0	0
Dezmon Thomas #98	4	2	1	1	0	0	0
N Noah Holton #30	3	2	0	1	0	1	0
John Scott III #41	2	1	0	0	0	0	0
Jacob Johnson #48	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
Jackson Bussey #97	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
Elijah McDowell #28	1	1	0	1	0	0	0
K Kyree Lewis #8	1	1	0	0	1	0	0
K Kerrell Yow #7	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
Jayden Lewis #21	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Andrew Jordan #46	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
Joseph Shannon #94	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
G Greg Williams #10	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
K Kevonte Corbin #0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team	65	37	3	5	3	3	1

Kick returns

SAM	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
K Kevonte Corbin #0	3	171	57.0	100	1
Team	3	171	57.0	100	1

Punt returns

SAM	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG
LaShon Young #9	2	21	10.5	18
K Kevonte Corbin #0	1	-2	-2.0	0
Team	3	19	6.3	18

Kicking

SAM	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Ty Ippolito #36	3/3	100.0	42	2/2	11
Team	3/3	100.0	42	2/2	11

Punting

SAM	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
Will Thorley #59	6	252	42.0	0	3	57
Team	6	252	42.0	0	3	57

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	SAM	ETSU
1st Downs	16	20
3rd down efficiency	6-17	4-13
4th down efficiency	1-1	2-3
Total Yards	323	367
Passing	224	171
Comp/Att	23/39	16/27
Yards per pass	5.7	6.3
Rushing	99	196
Rushing Attempts	31	38
Yards per rush	3.2	5.2
Penalties	8-80	5-46
Turnovers	0	1
Fumbles lost	0	1
Interceptions thrown	0	0
Possession	32:00	28:00

Computer pick · Spread

SAM +12.5

52%

At lock SAM 18.65–29.32 ETSU · ETSU by 10.7 pts vs SAM +12.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock

Hit

Players

Gabarri Johnson · SAM
19/32 C/ATT · 168 YDS
Mason Mims · ETSU
16/27 C/ATT · 171 YDS
TJ Peyton · ETSU
21 CAR · 89 YDS
Preston Bird · SAM
4 REC · 57 YDS
Brandon Winton · ETSU
4 REC · 58 YDS
Keion Dunlap · SAM
8 TOT · 6 SOLO

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Samford vs ETSU pick result · Nov 7, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is SAM +12.5, with a 52% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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