Morehead State Eagles at Marist Red Foxes
Final · ESPN+
13–14
At lock: projected MORE 21.15–34.97 MRST
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:38 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1386868298
- Winner: Marist (58%)
- Score error (both teams)25
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: MORE vs MRST
The model
How this number was built
MORE 21.15–34.97 MRST · Medium confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseMRST -0.1 off · MORE -0.6 off, shrunk 64%
- Home field+3.0 pts to MRST
- RecordMRST 5-5 · MORE 2-8
- Market priorBlended 80% toward MRST -16.5 / total 53.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MORE | 3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 13 |
| MRST | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 14 |
How the points were scored
- FGQ1 7:093–0
Jordan Price 26 Yd Field Goal
- FGQ2 12:046–0
Jordan Price 24 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ2 3:5113–0
Keegan Zylstra 53 Yd pass from Bryce Patterson (Jordan Price Kick)
- TDQ4 14:2513–7
Nate Furrow 8 Yd Interception Return (Luke Stenson Kick)
- TDQ4 5:0513–14
Sonny Mannino 10 Yd Run (Luke Stenson Kick)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| MORE | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | adjQBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
B Bryce Patterson #17 | 10/25 | 250 | 10.0 | 1 | 3 | — |
D David Parsons #5 | 1/4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Team | 11/29 | 260 | 9.0 | 1 | 3 | — |
Rushing
| MORE | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
J Jackson Lanier #28 | 15 | 34 | 2.3 | 0 | 10 |
B Blake Fisher #21 | 8 | 3 | 0.4 | 0 | 4 |
D David Parsons #5 | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 8 |
Team | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 | 0 |
B Bryce Patterson #17 | 5 | -3 | -0.6 | 0 | 14 |
| Team | 32 | 32 | 1.0 | 0 | 14 |
Receiving
| MORE | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
K Keegan Zylstra #0 | 3 | 98 | 32.7 | 1 | 53 |
C Cross Watson #19 | 3 | 68 | 22.7 | 0 | 50 |
C Cannon Dinger #7 | 2 | 65 | 32.5 | 0 | 57 |
A Anthony Ice #2 | 3 | 29 | 9.7 | 0 | 13 |
| Team | 11 | 260 | 23.6 | 1 | 57 |
Fumbles
| MORE | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
A Anthony Ice #2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
L Luke Popovich #58 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Q Quinton Griffin #24 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 1 | 0 | 2 |
Defense
| MORE | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
B Blake Surratt #30 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Q Quinton Griffin #24 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
K KJ Hardesty #54 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
T Tazion McQueen #15 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Z Zarius Harvey #13 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
L Lane Sumerel #8 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
J JC Wilson #7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
S Sidney Webb #10 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
J Josh Bowling #34 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
C Chris Edwards #14 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
M Malik Butler #98 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
J James Ludwig #56 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
A Anthony Ice #2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
L Luke Popovich #58 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
M Max Carver #46 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
J Javon Kinchen #25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 60 | 30 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
Kick returns
| MORE | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
S Sidney Webb #10 | 3 | 72 | 24.0 | 42 | 0 |
| Team | 3 | 72 | 24.0 | 42 | 0 |
Punt returns
| MORE | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
S Sidney Webb #10 | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 11 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 11 | 0 |
Kicking
| MORE | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
J Jordan Price #38 | 2/2 | 100.0 | 26 | 1/1 | 7 |
| Team | 2/2 | 100.0 | 26 | 1/1 | 7 |
Punting
| MORE | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
A Ashton Adams #49 | 3 | 141 | 47.0 | 0 | 1 | 51 |
| Team | 3 | 141 | 47.0 | 0 | 1 | 51 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| MORE | MRST | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 16 | 17 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 5-13 | 10-16 |
| 4th down efficiency | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Total Yards | 292 | 290 |
| Passing | 260 | 55 |
| Comp/Att | 11/29 | 10/24 |
| Yards per pass | 9.0 | 2.3 |
| Rushing | 32 | 235 |
| Rushing Attempts | 32 | 41 |
| Yards per rush | 1.0 | 5.7 |
| Penalties | 11-101 | 11-93 |
| Turnovers | 3 | 2 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 | 2 |
| Interceptions thrown | 3 | 0 |
| Possession | 27:25 | 32:35 |
At lock MORE 21.15–34.97 MRST · MRST by 13.8 pts vs MORE +16.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock
HitBryce Patterson · MORE
10/25 C/ATT · 250 YDSSonny Mannino · MRST
10/24 C/ATT · 55 YDSJackson Lanier · MORE
15 CAR · 34 YDSKeegan Zylstra · MORE
3 REC · 98 YDSIsaiah Simmons · MRST
3 REC · 23 YDSBlake Surratt · MORE
10 TOT · 6 SOLO
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Morehead St vs Marist pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is MORE +16.5, with a 53% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAF picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day