NCAAFFinalRichardson Stadium (Davidson, NC)

Stetson Hatters at Davidson Wildcats

Final · ESPN+

14–33

StetsonDavidson

Final

Stetson Hatters

1-9

Final

Davidson Wildcats

4-6

STET 43%DAV 57%

At lock: projected STET 29.44–32.14 DAV

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:38 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1186228418

Winner called · off by 16

Most typical sim

STET 24 – DAV 27

Final

STET 14 – DAV 33

Winner: Davidson (56%)
Score error (both teams)16

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: STET vs DAV

The model

How this number was built

STET 29.44–32.14 DAV · Medium confidence

Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Attack / defense
DAV -0.4 off · STET -0.9 off, shrunk 64%
Home field
+3.0 pts to DAV
Record
DAV 4-6 · STET 1-9
Market prior
Blended 66% toward DAV -1.5 / total 60.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
STET	7	0	7	0	14
DAV	0	13	13	7	33

How the points were scored

TDQ1 5:337–0
Landon Farco 63 Yd pass from Thomas Von Grote (Trey Hess Kick)
FGQ2 13:237–3
Christos Tzoumakas 25 Yd Field Goal
TDQ2 5:567–10
Jacary Lightsey 44 Yd pass from Casey Bullock (Christos Tzoumakas Kick)
FGQ2 0:547–13
Christos Tzoumakas 26 Yd Field Goal
TDQ3 12:187–19
Casey Bullock 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
TDQ3 3:237–26
Xavier Vela 6 Yd pass from Casey Bullock (Christos Tzoumakas Kick)
TDQ3 2:0814–26
Landon Farco 54 Yd pass from Thomas Von Grote (Trey Hess Kick)
TDQ4 13:3014–33
Tanner Waring 29 Yd pass from Casey Bullock (Christos Tzoumakas Kick)

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

STET	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	adjQBR
Thomas Von Grote #12	29/42	338	8.0	2	2	—
C Chris Stephenson #16	1/3	4	1.3	0	0	—
Team	30/45	342	7.6	2	2	—

Rushing

STET	CAR	YDS	AVG	LONG
C Chris Stephenson #16	4	16	4.0	8
A Anthony Benzija #10	1	5	5.0	5
M Marvin Duffey Jr #27	2	2	1.0	2
T Troy Flowers #8	7	2	0.3	4
Thomas Von Grote #12	5	1	0.2	14
Team	19	26	1.4	14

Receiving

STET	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
L Landon Farco #9	4	125	31.3	2	63
S Shawne Jones #4	6	68	11.3	0	27
W Wyatt Rogers #5	6	55	9.2	0	15
T Troy Flowers #8	4	38	9.5	0	26
A Anthony Benzija #10	4	33	8.3	0	16
M Marvin Duffey Jr #27	2	9	4.5	0	6
G Gunner Chenier #6	2	7	3.5	0	5
O Ollie Howell #22	1	5	5.0	0	5
K Kingston McCullough #18	1	2	2.0	0	2
Team	30	342	11.4	2	63

Fumbles

STET	FUM	LOST	REC
L Lemuel Bass #46	0	0	1
Team	0	0	1

Defense

STET	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HUR
D Damontez McDowell #10	10	7	0	1	0	0
K Kyle Elphick #11	7	4	0	0	0	0
J Jahlani Clarke #34	6	6	0	0	0	0
D Dylan Kelly #16	6	3	0	0	0	0
Casey Bending #6	4	2	2	2	1	0
C Cooper Aurilia #31	4	2	0	0	0	0
S Shug Bentley #41	4	2	0	0	0	0
C Caleb Larson #90	3	2	0	1	0	0
B Barrett Kennedy #58	3	1	0	0	0	0
J Julian Sampson #2	2	2	0	0	0	0
Thomas Von Grote #12	2	2	0	0	0	0
J Jahyden Clark #5	2	2	0	0	0	0
A Alex Yearwood #92	2	2	0	1	0	0
J Jadon Blakeslee #21	1	1	0	0	0	0
C Cade Davis #55	1	1	0	0	0	0
K Kahmari Hill #3	1	1	0	0	0	0
J Jaxon Holloway #1	1	1	0	0	0	1
T Trell Polk #15	1	1	0	0	0	0
M Michael Webb #17	1	1	0	0	0	0
T Trenton Curliss #19	1	1	0	0	0	0
C Cayden Homan #25	1	1	0	0	0	0
L Lemuel Bass #46	1	1	0	0	0	1
N Nycere Jacobs #0	1	0	0	0	0	0
M Micah Winslow #32	1	0	0	0	0	0
N Noah Raab #98	1	0	0	0	0	0
J Jack Talley #99	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team	68	46	2	5	1	2

Kick returns

STET	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
W Wyatt Rogers #5	1	11	11.0	11	0
Team	1	11	11.0	11	0

Kicking

STET	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
T Trey Hess #33	0/0	0.0	0	2/2	2
Team	0/0	0.0	0	2/2	2

Punting

STET	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
B Brett Gonda #20	5	196	39.2	0	1	47
Team	5	196	39.2	0	1	47

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	STET	DAV
1st Downs	17	29
3rd down efficiency	7-15	7-14
4th down efficiency	0-2	0-1
Total Yards	368	490
Passing	342	357
Comp/Att	30/45	23/36
Yards per pass	7.6	9.9
Rushing	26	133
Rushing Attempts	19	40
Yards per rush	1.4	3.3
Penalties	8-92	8-84
Turnovers	2	1
Fumbles lost	0	1
Interceptions thrown	2	0
Possession	23:44	36:16

Computer pick · Spread

DAV -2.5

50%

At lock STET 29.44–32.14 DAV · DAV by 2.7 pts vs DAV -2.5 · 50% is the confidence saved at lock

Hit

Players

Thomas Von Grote · STET
29/42 C/ATT · 338 YDS
Casey Bullock · DAV
23/36 C/ATT · 357 YDS
Chris Stephenson · STET
4 CAR · 16 YDS
Landon Farco · STET
4 REC · 125 YDS
Jacary Lightsey · DAV
8 REC · 116 YDS
Damontez McDowell · STET
10 TOT · 7 SOLO

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Stetson vs Davidson pick result · Nov 7, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is DAV -2.5, with a 50% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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