NCAAFFinalNissan Stadium

Southeast Missouri State Redhawks at Tennessee State Tigers

Final · ESPN+

33–14

SE MissouriTennessee St

Final

Southeast Missouri State Redhawks

6-4

Final

Tennessee State Tigers

2-8

SEMO 71%TNST 29%

At lock: projected SEMO 29.70–20.82 TNST

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:38 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3601808196

Missed · off by 20

Most typical sim

SEMO 27 – TNST 28

Final

SEMO 33 – TNST 14

Winner: Tennessee St (54%)
Score error (both teams)20

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: SEMO vs TNST

The model

How this number was built

SEMO 29.70–20.82 TNST · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -3.2 vs -2.1 · model TNST 28.3–26.7 SEMO
Home field
+3.0 pts to TNST
Record
TNST 2-8 · SEMO 6-4
Market prior
Blended 80% toward SEMO -11.5 / total 43.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
SEMO	0	3	21	9	33
TNST	0	0	7	7	14

How the points were scored

FGQ2 14:483–0
Justin Keller 38 Yd Field Goal
TDQ3 11:033–7
Aaron Duncan II 3 Yd pass from Daylin Lee (Britton Watts Kick)
TDQ3 4:5010–7
Khyair Spain 1 Yd Run (Justin Keller Kick)
TDQ3 3:1917–7
DJ Delmore 45 Yd Interception Return (Justin Keller Kick)
TDQ3 0:0024–7
Chance Wilson 23 Yd Run (Justin Keller Kick)
TDQ4 12:2224–14
Brock Montgomery 16 Yd pass from Daylin Lee (Britton Watts Kick)
TDQ4 9:3430–14
Khyair Spain 11 Yd Run (Justin Keller PAT failed)
FGQ4 1:2933–14
Justin Keller 35 Yd Field Goal

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

SEMO	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	INT	adjQBR
Chance Wilson #6	6/13	58	4.5	1	—
Braylen Ragland #7	0/1	0	0.0	0	—
Team	6/14	58	4.1	1	—

Rushing

SEMO	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Khyair Spain #0	22	160	7.3	2	23
Chance Wilson #6	19	140	7.4	1	33
Tyrell Reed Jr. #29	14	58	4.1	0	10
Cole Ruble #15	1	5	5.0	0	5
Khylen Harris-Norman #16	1	2	2.0	0	2
Team	2	-3	-1.5	0	0
Team	59	362	6.1	3	33

Receiving

SEMO	REC	YDS	AVG	LONG
Jobe Bryant #11	1	27	27.0	27
Demetrius Pearce #3	2	20	10.0	11
John Anthony Jr. #5	1	5	5.0	5
Khyair Spain #0	1	4	4.0	4
Tristin Purnell #17	1	2	2.0	2
Team	6	58	9.7	27

Fumbles

SEMO	FUM	LOST	REC
Cole Ruble #15	1	1	0
Jobe Bryant #11	1	0	0
Jayden Smitherman #26	0	0	1
Team	2	1	1

Defense

SEMO	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HUR	TD
Nehemiah Scott #6	8	4	0	0	0	0	0
Cole Dutkovich #25	5	3	0	0	0	0	0
Demarcus King Jr. #33	3	2	1	2.5	0	0	0
David Jones #7	3	2	0	0	0	0	0
Ashton Jones #93	2	2	1	1	1	0	0
DJ Delmore #23	2	2	0	0	0	0	1
Cyler Christmas #28	2	2	0	0	0	0	0
Malik Baker #12	2	2	0	0	0	0	0
Adrian Patterson #1	2	1	0	0	0	0	0
Adam Camphor #92	2	1	0	0	0	0	0
LJ Minner Jr. #9	2	1	0	0.5	0	0	0
Timothy Maxson #98	2	0	0	0	1	1	0
Robert Dover #51	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
Jalen Wheeler #10	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
Brandon Wilson #2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
Jayden Smitherman #26	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
Khylen Harris-Norman #16	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
Matthew McAulay #57	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
Tavarious Elliott #90	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team	42	28	3	5	2	1	1

Interceptions

SEMO	INT	YDS	TD
DJ Delmore #23	1	45	1
Team	1	45	1

Kick returns

SEMO	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Khylen Harris-Norman #16	2	33	16.5	21	0
Team	2	33	16.5	21	0

Punt returns

SEMO	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Jobe Bryant #11	6	41	6.8	13	0
Team	6	41	6.8	13	0

Kicking

SEMO	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Justin Keller #17	2/2	100.0	38	3/4	9
Team	2/2	100.0	38	3/4	9

Punting

SEMO	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
Teagan Cobb #30	3	91	30.3	0	2	31
Team	3	91	30.3	0	2	31

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	SEMO	TNST
1st Downs	25	15
3rd down efficiency	5-12	1-9
4th down efficiency	1-1	0-0
Total Yards	420	324
Passing	58	277
Comp/Att	6/14	21/37
Yards per pass	4.1	7.5
Rushing	362	47
Rushing Attempts	59	13
Yards per rush	6.1	3.6
Penalties	4-44	3-30
Turnovers	2	2
Fumbles lost	1	1
Interceptions thrown	1	1
Possession	37:35	22:25

Computer pick · Spread

TNST +11.5

53%

At lock SEMO 29.70–20.82 TNST · SEMO by 8.9 pts vs TNST +11.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock

Miss

Players

Chance Wilson · SEMO
6/13 C/ATT · 58 YDS
Daylin Lee · TNST
20/36 C/ATT · 273 YDS
Khyair Spain · SEMO
22 CAR · 160 YDS
Jerimiah Treadaway · TNST
5 CAR · 66 YDS
Jobe Bryant · SEMO
1 REC · 27 YDS
Anthony Taylor · TNST
7 REC · 73 YDS

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

SE Missouri vs Tennessee St pick result · Nov 7, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is TNST +11.5, with a 53% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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