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NationsMNEatCYP8:00 AM CTNationsARMatLVA8:00 AM CTNFLNEatDET8:30 AM CTNCAABABABACatFGCU11:00 AM CTNCAABQUINatCCSU11:00 AM CTNationsALBatBLR11:00 AM CTNationsSMRatFIN11:00 AM CTNFLKCatATL12:00 PM CTNFLHOUatCLE12:00 PM CTNFLMINatGB12:00 PM CTNFLJAXatTEN12:00 PM CTNFLMIAatIND12:00 PM CT
Board/NCAAF
NCAAFFinalBuccaneer Field

UT Martin Skyhawks at Charleston Southern Buccaneers

Final · ESPN+

UT Martin20–10Charleston So
UT MartinCharleston So
Final
UT Martin Skyhawks
4-6
20
Final
Final
Charleston Southern Buccaneers
4-6
10
UTM 36%CHSO 64%

At lock: projected UTM 21.07–26.83 CHSO

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:38 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2590871640

Missed · off by 21
Most typical sim
UTM 23 – CHSO 28
Final
UTM 20 – CHSO 10
  • Winner: Charleston So (62%)
  • Score error (both teams)21

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: UTM vs CHSO

The model

How this number was built

UTM 21.07–26.83 CHSO · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

  • Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
    Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -5.7 vs -6.4 · model CHSO 27.4–23.1 UTM
  • Home field
    +3.0 pts to CHSO
  • Record
    CHSO 4-6 · UTM 4-6
  • Market prior
    Blended 66% toward CHSO -4.5 / total 44.5
Full write-up of the model

Line score

Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTM1400620
CHSO370010

How the points were scored

  • TDQ1 9:037–0

    Tate Surber 4 Yd Run (Brandon Sims Kick)

  • FGQ1 7:077–3

    Matt Rolader 33 Yd Field Goal

  • TDQ1 0:5614–3

    LaMarion Pierce 0 Yd Interception Return (Brandon Sims Kick)

  • TDQ2 0:4514–10

    Dwayne Wright 2 Yd Run (Matt Rolader Kick)

  • FGQ4 6:5317–10

    Brandon Sims 43 Yd Field Goal

  • FGQ4 3:2920–10

    Brandon Sims 41 Yd Field Goal

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

UTMC/ATTYDSAVGTDINTadjQBR
Tate Surber
#8
14/16885.500—
Team14/16885.500—

Rushing

UTMCARYDSAVGTDLONG
Jaydon Peete
#20
20794.0018
Chris Franklin
#2
18703.9012
Tate Surber
#8
5102.014
Max Zuluaga
#34
1-2-2.000
Team441573.6118

Receiving

UTMRECYDSAVGTDLONG
Makhia Sherrard
#7
3155.008
Kaleb Costner
#0
11414.0014
Phaizon Wilson
#5
2147.008
Deuce Oliver
#1
2136.5010
Connie Hewitt II
#88
11111.0011
Anthony Carter
#11
11111.0011
Keyshaun Pipkin
#6
273.505
Jamauri Brice
#15
166.006
Chris Franklin
#2
1-3-3.000
Team14886.3014

Fumbles

UTMFUMLOSTREC
Jaydon Peete
#20
110
Isaac Moore
#80
100
Team210

Defense

UTMTOTSOLOSACKSTFLPDQB HURTD
Joel Castleberry
#3
6401100
Zamaryion Farmer-McCray
#4
6300.5000
Quincy Hamilton
#22
4200100
Jamarcus Smith
#0
4100.5000
Chris Wilson
#51
410.50.5000
LaMarion Pierce
#2
3200101
Nissi Mukulu
#19
3200.5000
Brylan Jordan
#20
3000100
Ant Fisher
#14
2100100
Braylin Dearmon
#35
2100000
Kennarius Chandler
#46
2100010
Daveon Johnson
#95
2001000
Wendell Smith
#17
2000000
Cam Robertson
#28
1100000
Reginald Allen Jr.
#8
1100000
Duston Chavis
#23
1100010
Makhia Sherrard
#7
1100000
Bryce Dailey
#41
100.50.5010
Broderick Tommie Jr
#93
1000.5010
Christopher Damron
#24
1000000
Malik Brown
#43
1000000
Tyson Hornbuckle
#45
1000010
Team522215551

Interceptions

UTMINTYDSTD
LaMarion Pierce
#2
1571
Team1570

Kick returns

UTMNOYDSAVGLONGTD
Tre'Marcus Webb
#15
24020.0240
Team24020.0240

Punt returns

UTMNOYDSAVGLONGTD
Deuce Oliver
#1
15555.0550
Isaac Moore
#80
11414.0140
Tyson Hornbuckle
#45
100.000
Team36923.0550

Kicking

UTMFGPCTLONGXPPTS
Brandon Sims
#37
2/2100.0432/28
Team2/2100.0432/28

Punting

UTMNOYDSAVGTBIn 20LONG
Max Zuluaga
#34
418345.80250
Team418345.80250

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

UTMCHSO
1st Downs1614
3rd down efficiency4-122-13
4th down efficiency1-21-3
Total Yards245248
Passing88191
Comp/Att14/1613/37
Yards per pass5.55.2
Rushing15757
Rushing Attempts4423
Yards per rush3.62.5
Penalties9-756-53
Turnovers11
Fumbles lost10
Interceptions thrown01
Possession34:2425:36
Computer pick · Spread
UTM +6.5
51%

At lock UTM 21.07–26.83 CHSO · CHSO by 5.8 pts vs UTM +6.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock

Hit
Players

  • Tate Surber · UTM

    14/16 C/ATT · 88 YDS

  • Jared Echols · CHSO

    6/12 C/ATT · 100 YDS

  • Jaydon Peete · UTM

    20 CAR · 79 YDS

  • Hunter Green · CHSO

    1 CAR · 19 YDS

  • Makhia Sherrard · UTM

    3 REC · 15 YDS

  • Quay Kindell · CHSO

    5 REC · 73 YDS

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

UT Martin vs Charleston So pick result · Nov 7, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is UTM +6.5, with a 51% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NCAAF picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day

Overline Sports

Projections blend power-index ratings with DraftKings lines. Every game carries a computer pick and a tagged DK prop; closed games are graded against those pre-game leans. Statistical estimates, not betting advice. Live scores, clocks, and team pages from ESPN.

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