Portland State Vikings at Montana Grizzlies
Final · ESPN+
24–57
At lock: projected PRST 20.86–43.21 MONT
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:38 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 175291862
- Winner: Montana (80%)
- Score error (both teams)23
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: PRST vs MONT
The model
How this number was built
PRST 20.86–43.21 MONT · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -2.3 vs -9.0 · model MONT 35.7–22.0 PRST
- Home field+3.0 pts to MONT
- RecordMONT 7-3 · PRST 2-8
- Market priorBlended 80% toward MONT -24.5 / total 65.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRST | 3 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 24 |
| MONT | 15 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 57 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ1 13:220–7
Hashim Jones 8 Yd Run (Jo Silver Kick)
- FGQ1 3:463–7
Joshua Hossmann Lees 25 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ1 1:243–15
Eli Gillman 45 Yd Run (Brooks Davis Run for Two-Point Conversion)
- TDQ2 9:003–22
Eli Gillman 15 Yd Run (Jo Silver Kick)
- TDQ2 2:1110–22
Tanner Beaman 12 Yd pass from John-Keawe Sagapolutele (Joshua Hossmann Lees Kick)
- TDQ2 0:1710–29
Chase Cook 1 Yd pass from Keali'i Ah Yat (Jo Silver Kick)
- TDQ3 10:2610–36
Eli Gillman 43 Yd Run (Jo Silver Kick)
- TDQ3 9:0410–43
Eli Gillman 84 Yd Run (Jo Silver Kick)
- TDQ3 3:2917–43
Zui Shelton 16 Yd Run (Joshua Hossmann Lees Kick)
- TDQ4 14:2017–50
Keali'i Ah Yat 9 Yd Run (Jo Silver Kick)
- TDQ4 8:3224–50
Niall Raby 2 Yd Run (Joshua Hossmann Lees Kick)
- TDQ4 5:3024–57
Cody Schweikert 35 Yd Run (Jo Silver Kick)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| PRST | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | adjQBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 John-Keawe Sagapolutele #9 | 21/37 | 205 | 5.5 | 1 | 0 | — |
| Team | 21/37 | 205 | 5.5 | 1 | 0 | — |
Rushing
| PRST | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Delon Thompson #24 | 16 | 55 | 3.4 | 0 | 20 |
N Niall Raby #23 | 12 | 49 | 4.1 | 1 | 14 |
Z Zui Shelton #8 | 2 | 22 | 11.0 | 1 | 16 |
 Cru Newman #6 | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 | 9 |
John-Keawe Sagapolutele #9 | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 | 8 |
T Titus Andrus #48 | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 | 4 |
| Team | 35 | 152 | 4.3 | 2 | 20 |
Receiving
| PRST | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Terence Loville #3 | 10 | 109 | 10.9 | 0 | 25 |
 Tanner Beaman #10 | 4 | 52 | 13.0 | 1 | 23 |
Z Zui Shelton #8 | 3 | 24 | 8.0 | 0 | 14 |
K Kaleb Jammer #7 | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 | 15 |
Cru Newman #6 | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 | 7 |
Delon Thompson #24 | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 21 | 205 | 9.8 | 1 | 25 |
Defense
| PRST | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jaxton Helmstetler #6 | 13 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Gio Kafentzis #7 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Logan Lisherness #31 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Isaac Redford #4 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
M Marcellous Ryan #5 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Lono Solomon #30 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
L Lamarr Stephens #13 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Andre Miller #12 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Dionte West #28 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
T Titus Andrus #48 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Z Zeliah Wade #59 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jonathan Epperson Jr. #17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
B Brogan De'Asis #34 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
N Nash Burkart #35 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
K Kekama Cosma #44 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 56 | 32 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Kick returns
| PRST | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Z Zui Shelton #8 | 4 | 77 | 19.3 | 29 | 0 |
Cru Newman #6 | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 19 | 0 |
| Team | 5 | 96 | 19.2 | 29 | 0 |
Punt returns
| PRST | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cru Newman #6 | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | 0 |
Kicking
| PRST | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
J Joshua Hossmann Lees #37 | 1/1 | 100.0 | 25 | 3/3 | 6 |
| Team | 1/1 | 100.0 | 25 | 3/3 | 6 |
Punting
| PRST | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
E Emiliano Rodriguez #88 | 4 | 219 | 54.8 | 1 | 2 | 59 |
| Team | 4 | 219 | 54.8 | 1 | 2 | 59 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| PRST | MONT | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 21 | 27 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 9-16 | 10-12 |
| 4th down efficiency | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Total Yards | 357 | 644 |
| Passing | 205 | 281 |
| Comp/Att | 21/37 | 21/30 |
| Yards per pass | 5.5 | 9.4 |
| Rushing | 152 | 363 |
| Rushing Attempts | 35 | 30 |
| Yards per rush | 4.3 | 12.1 |
| Penalties | 3-30 | 2-10 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 0 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 | 0 |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 0 |
| Possession | 34:30 | 25:30 |
At lock PRST 20.86–43.21 MONT · MONT by 22.4 pts vs PRST +24.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock
MissJohn-Keawe Sagapolutele · PRST
21/37 C/ATT · 205 YDSKeali'i Ah Yat · MONT
19/28 C/ATT · 259 YDSDelon Thompson · PRST
16 CAR · 55 YDSEli Gillman · MONT
8 CAR · 196 YDSTerence Loville · PRST
10 REC · 109 YDSBrooks Davis · MONT
8 REC · 88 YDS
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Portland St vs Montana pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is PRST +24.5, with a 53% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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