NCAAFFinalChristy Mathewson-Memorial Stadium

Fordham Rams at Bucknell Bison

Final · ESPN+

38–13

FordhamBucknell

Final

Fordham Rams

3-7

Final

Bucknell Bison

1-9

FOR 50%BUCK 50%

At lock: projected FOR 23.61–23.69 BUCK

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:38 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 4009670117

Missed · off by 31

Most typical sim

FOR 24 – BUCK 30

Final

FOR 38 – BUCK 13

Winner: Bucknell (65%)
Score error (both teams)31

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: FOR vs BUCK

The model

How this number was built

FOR 23.61–23.69 BUCK · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -4.4 vs -6.4 · model BUCK 30.2–23.9 FOR
Home field
+3.0 pts to BUCK
Record
BUCK 1-9 · FOR 3-7
Market prior
Blended 80% toward FOR -1.5 / total 44.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
FOR	7	21	3	7	38
BUCK	3	3	0	7	13

How the points were scored

TDQ1 6:437–0
Gunnar Smith 46 Yd Run (Bennett Henderson Kick)
FGQ1 1:577–3
Juan Garanton 34 Yd Field Goal
FGQ2 12:507–6
Juan Garanton 31 Yd Field Goal
TDQ2 12:0614–6
Jamell James 61 Yd Run (Bennett Henderson Kick)
TDQ2 2:3221–6
Yohan-Li Louis 5 Yd Run (Bennett Henderson Kick)
TDQ2 0:3728–6
Gunnar Smith 7 Yd Run (Bennett Henderson Kick)
FGQ3 10:2431–6
Bennett Henderson 50 Yd Field Goal
TDQ4 14:2038–6
Jamell James 1 Yd Run (Bennett Henderson Kick)
TDQ4 12:1338–13
Matthew Giannantonio 26 Yd pass from Emmett Dowling (Juan Garanton Kick)

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

FOR	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	adjQBR
Gunnar Smith #12	11/17	81	4.8	0	0	—
Team	11/17	81	4.8	0	0	—

Rushing

FOR	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Jamell James #25	21	157	7.5	2	61
Gunnar Smith #12	12	122	10.2	2	46
Yohan-Li Louis #13	9	35	3.9	1	6
Taariq Denson #14	5	19	3.8	0	6
Jacob Rodriguez #34	2	9	4.5	0	9
Team	2	-3	-1.5	0	0
Team	51	339	6.6	5	61

Receiving

FOR	REC	YDS	AVG	LONG
Ricky Gonzalez II #5	3	38	12.7	22
KJ Reed #4	1	24	24.0	24
Andrew Bond #88	2	7	3.5	4
Jake Kucera #86	1	6	6.0	6
Nodin Tracy #21	1	3	3.0	3
Chris Tuck II #24	3	3	1.0	2
Team	11	81	7.4	24

Fumbles

FOR	FUM	LOST	REC
Yohan-Li Louis #13	1	1	0
Krystian Pothel #0	0	0	1
Team	1	1	1

Defense

FOR	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD
Kemaury Tye #4	8	5	0	2	0
AJ Revella #27	8	3	0	0	0
Boogie Owens #19	6	5	0	0	0
Andrew Osmun #12	5	4	0	1.5	0
Drew Minich #1	5	4	0	0	0
Justin Johnson #15	3	3	0	0	1
Krystian Pothel #0	3	2	0	1	1
Brian Oliver Jr. #50	2	2	0	0	0
Jovan George #10	2	1	0	0	0
Tyler Davis #45	2	1	0	1.5	0
Lorenzo Riddick #46	1	1	1	1	0
Tiu Afalava #90	1	1	0	0	0
Colby Spencer #98	1	1	0	0	0
Team	47	33	1	7	2

Interceptions

FOR	INT	YDS	TD
Boogie Owens #19	1	6	0
Team	1	6	0

Kick returns

FOR	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Judah Ofori-Ansah #27	2	29	14.5	15	0
Team	2	29	14.5	15	0

Punt returns

FOR	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Yohan-Li Louis #13	1	-1	-1.0	0	0
Team	1	-1	-1.0	0	0

Kicking

FOR	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Bennett Henderson #99	1/1	100.0	50	5/5	8
Team	1/1	100.0	50	5/5	8

Punting

FOR	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
Dominic Sansone #97	4	112	28.0	0	0	39
Team	4	112	28.0	0	0	39

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	FOR	BUCK
1st Downs	19	12
3rd down efficiency	8-14	4-13
4th down efficiency	0-0	0-2
Total Yards	420	211
Passing	81	146
Comp/Att	11/17	19/32
Yards per pass	4.8	4.6
Rushing	339	65
Rushing Attempts	51	23
Yards per rush	6.6	2.8
Penalties	9-70	4-43
Turnovers	1	2
Fumbles lost	1	1
Interceptions thrown	0	1
Possession	36:26	23:34

Computer pick · Spread

BUCK +1.5

52%

At lock FOR 23.61–23.69 BUCK · BUCK by 0.1 pts vs BUCK +1.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock

Miss

Players

Gunnar Smith · FOR
11/17 C/ATT · 81 YDS
Emmett Dowling · BUCK
19/32 C/ATT · 146 YDS
Jamell James · FOR
21 CAR · 157 YDS
Michael Cadden · BUCK
11 CAR · 46 YDS
Ricky Gonzalez II · FOR
3 REC · 38 YDS
Sam Milligan · BUCK
12 REC · 99 YDS

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Fordham vs Bucknell pick result · Nov 7, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is BUCK +1.5, with a 52% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NCAAF picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day