Long Island University Sharks at New Haven Chargers
Final · NEC Front Row
10–17
At lock: projected LIU 22.65–19.64 NH
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:38 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2095741623
- Winner: New Haven (57%)
- Score error (both teams)25
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: LIU vs NH
The model
How this number was built
LIU 22.65–19.64 NH · Medium confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseNH -0.6 off · LIU -0.4 off, shrunk 64%
- Home field+3.0 pts to NH
- RecordNH 3-7 · LIU 3-7
- Market priorBlended 80% toward LIU -4.5 / total 42.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIU | 0 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| NH | 7 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 17 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ1 14:390–7
Nate Burleson II 73 Yd pass from AJ Duffy (Liam Quigley Kick)
- TDQ2 5:277–7
Sam Slade 1 Yd Run (Will Johnson Kick)
- FGQ3 10:0710–7
Will Johnson 36 Yd Field Goal
- FGQ4 12:4010–10
Liam Quigley 16 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ4 7:0010–17
Zaon Laney 1 Yd Run (Liam Quigley Kick)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| LIU | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | adjQBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ethan Greenwood #1 | 12/20 | 130 | 6.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Team | 12/20 | 130 | 6.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
Rushing
| LIU | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ethan Greenwood #1 | 27 | 75 | 2.8 | 0 | 19 |
 Sam Slade #21 | 11 | 25 | 2.3 | 1 | 5 |
N Nathan Gray #31 | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 | 3 |
 Tyselle Spencer #3 | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 | 6 |
 Josiah Brown #7 | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | 5 |
 Joseph Young #5 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
Team | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 49 | 118 | 2.4 | 1 | 19 |
Receiving
| LIU | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Joseph Young #5 | 4 | 54 | 13.5 | 0 | 34 |
 Boakai Veikei #9 | 1 | 29 | 29.0 | 0 | 29 |
Tyselle Spencer #3 | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 | 12 |
 Evan Brooks #8 | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 | 11 |
 Santana Young #84 | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 | 8 |
Sam Slade #21 | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 | 6 |
 Jayden Simpson #10 | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | 5 |
G Gianni Marino #86 | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Team | 12 | 130 | 10.8 | 0 | 34 |
Fumbles
| LIU | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
Team | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Ethan Greenwood #1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Defense
| LIU | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Rafael Fasolino #20 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 1.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Trey Watkins #30 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jeremie McGurn #1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Noah Livingston #0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Braylon Vincent #3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
A Amari James #90 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
R Ryan Maxwell #22 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
J Jerome Hayes Jr. #41 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Felix Matos #32 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Martavius Durden Jr. #7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Rodney Mills #40 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jackson Barry #33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Deuce Cooper #2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 33 | 27 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Kick returns
| LIU | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Felix Matos #32 | 3 | 52 | 17.3 | 23 | 0 |
| Team | 3 | 52 | 17.3 | 23 | 0 |
Punt returns
| LIU | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Felix Matos #32 | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 10 | 0 |
| Team | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 10 | 0 |
Kicking
| LIU | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will Johnson #24 | 1/2 | 50.0 | 36 | 1/1 | 4 |
| Team | 1/2 | 50.0 | 36 | 1/1 | 4 |
Punting
| LIU | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
C Callum Brent #47 | 5 | 196 | 39.2 | 0 | 0 | 46 |
| Team | 5 | 196 | 39.2 | 0 | 0 | 46 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| LIU | NH | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 17 | 13 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 6-17 | 1-10 |
| 4th down efficiency | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Total Yards | 248 | 282 |
| Passing | 130 | 227 |
| Comp/Att | 12/20 | 15/27 |
| Yards per pass | 6.5 | 8.4 |
| Rushing | 118 | 55 |
| Rushing Attempts | 49 | 23 |
| Yards per rush | 2.4 | 2.4 |
| Penalties | 6-54 | 11-105 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 0 |
| Fumbles lost | 1 | 0 |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 0 |
| Possession | 37:48 | 22:12 |
At lock LIU 22.65–19.64 NH · LIU by 3.0 pts vs NH +4.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
HitEthan Greenwood · LIU
12/20 C/ATT · 130 YDSAJ Duffy · NH
15/26 C/ATT · 227 YDSFrank Daniley · NH
7 CAR · 30 YDSJoseph Young · LIU
4 REC · 54 YDSNate Burleson II · NH
2 REC · 77 YDSRafael Fasolino · LIU
9 TOT · 7 SOLO
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Long Island vs New Haven pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is NH +4.5, with a 52% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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