UNLV Rebels at #23 New Mexico Lobos
Final · CW
21–17
At lock: projected UNLV 16.44–31.13 UNM
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 13, 9:00 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3702579713
- Winner: New Mexico (82%)
- Spread: UNM -14.5 covers (50%)
- Total: Over 46.5 (56%)
- Score error (both teams)18
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: UNLV vs UNM
The model
How this number was built
UNLV 16.44–31.13 UNM · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexUNM +7.8 vs UNLV -4.9 · pred margin +18.3
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +10.5 vs +1.7 · model UNM 34.5–17.6 UNLV
- Home field+3.0 pts to UNM
- RecordUNM 8-2 · UNLV 6-4
- Market priorBlended 66% toward UNM -19.5 / total 46.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNLV | 0 | 7 | 0 | 14 | 21 |
| UNM | 7 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 17 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ1 7:210–7
Scottre Humphrey 3 Yd Run (Nick Romero Kick)
- TDQ2 10:360–14
Cade Keith 9 Yd pass from Toa Fa'avae (Nick Romero Kick)
- TDQ2 1:387–14
Keyan Burnett 16 Yd pass from Jackson Arnold (Ramon Villela Kick)
- FGQ3 5:367–17
Nick Romero 36 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ4 11:4014–17
Kayden McGee 43 Yd pass from Jackson Arnold (Ramon Villela Kick)
- TDQ4 7:2621–17
Jackson Arnold 44 Yd Run (Ramon Villela Kick)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| UNLV | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jackson Arnold #11 | 12/26 | 201 | 7.7 | 2 | 1 | 69.0 |
 Alex Orji #1 | 1/1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 | 0 | -- |
| Team | 13/27 | 209 | 7.7 | 2 | 1 | -- |
Rushing
| UNLV | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jackson Arnold #11 | 14 | 98 | 7.0 | 1 | 44 |
 Jai'Den Thomas #9 | 11 | 21 | 1.9 | 0 | 5 |
 Jaylon Glover #0 | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 | 9 |
Team | 5 | -14 | -2.8 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 33 | 118 | 3.6 | 1 | 44 |
Receiving
| UNLV | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kayden McGee #6 | 2 | 64 | 32.0 | 1 | 43 |
 Vincent Carner #81 | 3 | 58 | 19.3 | 0 | 37 |
 Peyton Zachary #82 | 2 | 35 | 17.5 | 0 | 22 |
 Taeshaun Lyons #8 | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 | 8 |
 Keyan Burnett #84 | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 1 | 16 |
 Matt Byrnes #85 | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 | 13 |
Jaylon Glover #0 | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | 4 |
| Team | 13 | 209 | 16.1 | 2 | 43 |
Fumbles
| UNLV | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
Jackson Arnold #11 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Defense
| UNLV | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Cam Santee #23 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 2.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Denver Harris #2 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Andre Porter #42 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kamuela Ka'aihue #8 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Dee Crayton #3 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Mumu Bin-Wahad #1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jake Pope #7 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Kyron Chambers #38 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kal-El Togafau #44 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Mo Abbasher #88 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Herb Gray #92 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Elias Rudolph #91 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Blesyng Alualu-Tuiolemotu #15 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Poe Purcell #54 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Lucas Conti #94 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Jackson Arnold #11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Tony-Louis Nkuba #4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jaylen Allen #13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kenji Scanlan #32 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Quandarius Keyes #5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Mohamed Altayeb #16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 78 | 30 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Interceptions
| UNLV | INT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
Tony-Louis Nkuba #4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Punt returns
| UNLV | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Peyton Zachary #82 | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 4 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 4 | 0 |
Kicking
| UNLV | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ramon Villela #32 | 0/0 | 0.0 | 0 | 3/3 | 3 |
| Team | 0/0 | 0.0 | 0 | 3/3 | 3 |
Punting
| UNLV | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Matt Choules #26 | 6 | 294 | 49.0 | 1 | 3 | 70 |
| Team | 6 | 294 | 49.0 | 1 | 3 | 70 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| UNLV | UNM | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 17 | 15 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 7-15 | 3-13 |
| 4th down efficiency | 1-2 | 1-3 |
| Total Yards | 327 | 308 |
| Passing | 209 | 105 |
| Comp/Att | 13/27 | 8/15 |
| Yards per pass | 7.7 | 7.0 |
| Rushing | 118 | 203 |
| Rushing Attempts | 33 | 48 |
| Yards per rush | 3.6 | 4.2 |
| Penalties | 6-35 | 6-40 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 1 |
| Fumbles lost | 1 | 0 |
| Interceptions thrown | 1 | 1 |
| Possession | 26:57 | 33:03 |
Model projected UNLV 16.44 – 31.13 UNM at lock · below the strong-play bar (edge -1.5%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet
Jackson Arnold · UNLV
12/26 C/ATT · 201 YDSBailen George · UNM
1/1 C/ATT · 65 YDSScottre Humphrey · UNM
19 CAR · 89 YDSKayden McGee · UNLV
2 REC · 64 YDSDJ Darling · UNM
1 REC · 65 YDSCam Santee · UNLV
12 TOT · 5 SOLO
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
UNLV vs New Mexico pick result · Nov 14, 2026
Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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