#23 New Mexico Lobos at Nevada Wolf Pack
Final · CBSSN
31–3
At lock: projected UNM 26.27–15.25 NEV
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 5, 8:02 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3534803523
- Winner: New Mexico (77%)
- Spread: UNM -10 covers (52% vs 45%, push 2%)
- Total: Over 36.5 (71%)
- Score error (both teams)16
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: UNM vs NEV
The model
How this number was built
UNM 26.27–15.25 NEV · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexNEV -9.4 vs UNM +7.8 · pred margin -12.1
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -2.8 vs +10.5 · model NEV 13.3–30.6 UNM
- Home field+3.0 pts to NEV
- RecordNEV 3-6 · UNM 8-1
- Market priorBlended 66% toward UNM -10.5 / total 39.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNM | 14 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 31 |
| NEV | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ1 11:317–0
Scottre Humphrey 2 Yd Run (Nick Romero Kick)
- TDQ1 2:5814–0
Kiefer Sibley 31 Yd Run (Nick Romero Kick)
- FGQ2 0:3714–3
Jacob Fernandez 32 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ3 8:4521–3
Scottre Humphrey 1 Yd Run (Nick Romero Kick)
- TDQ4 11:1728–3
Cade Keith 25 Yd pass from Toa Fa'avae (Nick Romero Kick)
- FGQ4 5:1331–3
Nick Romero 37 Yd Field Goal
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| UNM | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Toa Fa'avae #13 | 14/20 | 150 | 7.5 | 1 | 0 | 28.1 |
 Luke Moga #10 | 2/2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 | 0 | -- |
| Team | 16/22 | 161 | 7.3 | 1 | 0 | -- |
Rushing
| UNM | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Scottre Humphrey #22 | 17 | 107 | 6.3 | 2 | 21 |
 Kiefer Sibley #21 | 12 | 54 | 4.5 | 1 | 31 |
Toa Fa'avae #13 | 9 | 29 | 3.2 | 0 | 17 |
 Cameron Mathews #23 | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 | 6 |
 Deshaun Buchanan #8 | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 | 6 |
 Tripp Walsh #7 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 45 | 213 | 4.7 | 3 | 31 |
Receiving
| UNM | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Cade Keith #88 | 4 | 63 | 15.8 | 1 | 28 |
 Bailen George #81 | 4 | 44 | 11.0 | 0 | 22 |
Tripp Walsh #7 | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 | 14 |
 Zhaiel Smith #6 | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 | 7 |
 DJ Darling #14 | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 | 11 |
Cameron Mathews #23 | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | 6 |
 Dorian Patterson #25 | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | 5 |
Kiefer Sibley #21 | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 | 4 |
| Team | 16 | 161 | 10.1 | 1 | 28 |
Fumbles
| UNM | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
Toa Fa'avae #13 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Marco Beltran Jr. #16 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Darren Agu #10 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 2 | 0 | 1 |
Defense
| UNM | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jayden Flaker #38 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Tavian Combs #7 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Mercury Swaim #2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Brett Karhu #45 | 4 | 2 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Darren Agu #10 | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Clay Martineau #18 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Austin Brawley #0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Frankie Edwards III #5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
 CJ McBean #3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Albert Tuakalau #36 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Xavier Slayton #15 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
 Jalen Charles #22 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kevin Longstreet #20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Eric McClain #9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kader Diop #9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Drew Speech #12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jake DeVos #46 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jahmir Torres #1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 44 | 18 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 0 |
Kick returns
| UNM | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Marco Beltran Jr. #16 | 1 | 37 | 37.0 | 37 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 37 | 37.0 | 37 | 0 |
Punt returns
| UNM | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Marco Beltran Jr. #16 | 4 | 28 | 7.0 | 16 | 0 |
| Team | 4 | 28 | 7.0 | 16 | 0 |
Kicking
| UNM | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Nick Romero #41 | 1/1 | 100.0 | 37 | 4/4 | 7 |
| Team | 1/1 | 100.0 | 37 | 4/4 | 7 |
Punting
| UNM | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Michael Kern #19 | 5 | 205 | 41.0 | 1 | 3 | 63 |
| Team | 5 | 205 | 41.0 | 1 | 3 | 63 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| UNM | NEV | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 20 | 6 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 9-16 | 2-15 |
| 4th down efficiency | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Total Yards | 374 | 97 |
| Passing | 161 | 106 |
| Comp/Att | 16/22 | 14/31 |
| Yards per pass | 7.3 | 3.4 |
| Rushing | 213 | -9 |
| Rushing Attempts | 45 | 18 |
| Yards per rush | 4.7 | -0.5 |
| Penalties | 4-40 | 5-40 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 1 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 | 1 |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 0 |
| Possession | 38:36 | 21:24 |
At lock UNM 26.27–15.25 NEV · 3.0 pts over 38.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock
MissToa Fa'avae · UNM
14/20 C/ATT · 150 YDSAJ Bianco · NEV
14/31 C/ATT · 106 YDSScottre Humphrey · UNM
17 CAR · 107 YDSHerschel Turner · NEV
6 CAR · 12 YDSCade Keith · UNM
4 REC · 63 YDSMarshaun Brown · NEV
2 REC · 56 YDS
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
New Mexico vs Nevada pick result · Nov 6, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 38.5, with a 51% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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