NCAAFFinalSun Bowl

Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors at UTEP Miners

Final · FS1

17–14

Hawai'iUTEP

Final

Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors

3-6 · L1

196 PF · 231 PA

Final

UTEP Miners

1-8 · L8

142 PF · 336 PA

HAW 73%UTEP 27%

At lock: projected HAW 29.77–19.66 UTEP

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:38 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3518025904

Winner called · off by 19

Most typical sim

HAW 30 – UTEP 20

Final

HAW 17 – UTEP 14

Winner: Hawai'i (73%)
Spread: HAW -8.5 covers (54%)
Total: Over 48.5 (55%)
Score error (both teams)19

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: HAW vs UTEP

The model

How this number was built

HAW 29.77–19.66 UTEP · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
UTEP -24.1 vs HAW -9.9 · pred margin -8.4
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -9.5 vs -0.4 · model UTEP 18.6–29.4 HAW
Home field
+3.0 pts to UTEP
Record
UTEP 1-8 · HAW 3-6
Market prior
Blended 66% toward HAW -7 / total 48.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
HAW	7	3	0	7	17
UTEP	0	7	0	7	14

How the points were scored

TDQ1 2:577–0
Titan Lacaden 20 Yd pass from Micah Alejado (Sean Olvera-Harle Kick)
FGQ2 7:0110–0
Sean Olvera-Harle 20 Yd Field Goal
TDQ2 6:2510–7
Lamar Sperling 5 Yd Run (Carlos Arreola Kick)
TDQ4 10:0817–7
Sitani Mikaele 6 Yd Run (Sean Olvera-Harle Kick)
TDQ4 6:5717–14
Judah Ezinwa 15 Yd pass from Raymond Moore III (Carlos Arreola Kick)

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

HAW	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	QBR
Micah Alejado #12	26/39	303	7.8	1	1	50.2
Tama Uiliata #8	0/1	0	0.0	0	0	--
Team	26/40	303	7.6	1	1	--

Rushing

HAW	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Cam Barfield #0	15	64	4.3	0	10
DeVon Rice #1	10	59	5.9	0	16
Sitani Mikaele #26	6	36	6.0	1	23
Tama Uiliata #8	1	1	1.0	0	1
Team	3	-14	-4.7	0	0
Micah Alejado #12	3	-25	-8.3	0	0
Team	38	121	3.2	1	23

Receiving

HAW	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Titan Lacaden #22	11	109	9.9	1	23
Audric Harris #2	4	101	25.3	0	45
Kainoa Carvalho #6	3	22	7.3	0	11
Nick Delgadillo #17	1	21	21.0	0	21
Devin Alves #11	2	17	8.5	0	9
Cam Barfield #0	1	11	11.0	0	11
Koa Eldredge #13	1	9	9.0	0	9
Blaze Kamoku #18	1	8	8.0	0	8
Tama Uiliata #8	1	4	4.0	0	4
DeVon Rice #1	1	1	1.0	0	1
Team	26	303	11.7	1	45

Fumbles

HAW	FUM	LOST	REC
DeVon Rice #1	1	1	0
Matagi Thompson #25	0	0	1
Team	1	1	1

Defense

HAW	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HUR
Jamih Otis #11	10	3	0.5	1.5	0	0
Elijah Palmer #4	9	7	0	0	0	0
Wynden Ho'ohuli #12	6	2	0	0	1	0
Kona Moore #2	5	5	0	0	0	0
Ozzy Pollard #99	5	2	0	0.5	0	1
Geoffrey Speight Jr. #95	3	0	0	0.5	0	0
Elijah Gipson #13	2	2	0	0	0	0
Matagi Thompson #25	2	1	0	0	1	0
Jeremiah Hughes #0	1	1	0	0	0	0
Makana Meyer #21	1	1	0	0	0	0
Aisiah Paogofie #31	1	1	0	0	0	0
Nazaiah Caravallo #26	1	0	0	0	0	0
Noah Wily #20	1	0	0.5	0.5	0	1
Jaylon Edmond #5	1	0	0	0.5	0	0
Lesterlaisene Lagafuaina #51	1	0	0	0.5	0	0
Spencer Elliott #56	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team	49	25	1	4	2	3

Punt returns

HAW	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Tama Uiliata #8	1	3	3.0	3	0
Team	1	3	3.0	3	0

Kicking

HAW	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Sean Olvera-Harle #98	1/2	50.0	20	2/2	5
Team	1/2	50.0	20	2/2	5

Punting

HAW	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
Gehrig Heil #47	3	137	45.7	0	1	46
Team	3	137	45.7	0	1	46

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	HAW	UTEP
1st Downs	27	17
3rd down efficiency	8-15	2-10
4th down efficiency	0-0	1-2
Total Yards	424	288
Passing	303	109
Comp/Att	26/40	9/18
Yards per pass	7.6	6.1
Rushing	121	179
Rushing Attempts	38	31
Yards per rush	3.2	5.8
Penalties	5-50	6-65
Turnovers	2	1
Fumbles lost	1	1
Interceptions thrown	1	0
Possession	36:35	23:25

Computer pick · Spread

HAW -9.5

51%

At lock HAW 29.77–19.66 UTEP · HAW by 10.1 pts vs HAW -9.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock

Miss

Players

Micah Alejado · HAW
26/39 C/ATT · 303 YDS
Raymond Moore III · UTEP
9/18 C/ATT · 109 YDS
Cam Barfield · HAW
15 CAR · 64 YDS
Lamar Sperling · UTEP
11 CAR · 63 YDS
Titan Lacaden · HAW
11 REC · 109 YDS
Carver Cheeks · UTEP
2 REC · 46 YDS

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Hawai'i vs UTEP pick result · Nov 7, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is HAW -9.5, with a 51% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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