NCAAFFinalFlagler Credit Union Stadium

UTSA Roadrunners at Florida Atlantic Owls

Final · ESPN

29–60

UTSAFAU

Final

UTSA Roadrunners

7-2 · W1

332 PF · 284 PA

Final

Florida Atlantic Owls

6-3 · L1

383 PF · 353 PA

UTSA 65%FAU 35%

At lock: projected UTSA 38.31–32.05 FAU

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 4, 6:48 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 874738532

Missed · off by 37

Most typical sim

UTSA 38 – FAU 32

Final

UTSA 29 – FAU 60

Winner: UTSA (65%)
Spread: FAU +7 covers (50% vs 46%, push 5%)
Total: Under 72.5 (58%)
Score error (both teams)37

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: UTSA vs FAU

The model

How this number was built

UTSA 38.31–32.05 FAU · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
FAU -6.9 vs UTSA -3.0 · pred margin -4.6
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +2.0 vs +2.8 · model FAU 36.9–34.7 UTSA
Home field
+3.0 pts to FAU
Record
FAU 6-3 · UTSA 7-2
Market prior
Blended 66% toward UTSA -7 / total 72.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
UTSA	7	15	7	0	29
FAU	21	14	15	10	60

How the points were scored

TDQ1 10:000–7
Easton Messer 6 Yd pass from Caden Veltkamp (Collin Rogers Kick)
TDQ1 5:317–7
Mekhi Anderson 20 Yd pass from Owen McCown (Michael Petro Kick)
TDQ1 4:147–14
AJ Johnson 14 Yd pass from Easton Messer (Collin Rogers Kick)
TDQ1 1:117–21
Easton Messer 15 Yd pass from Caden Veltkamp (Collin Rogers Kick)
TDQ2 13:4313–21
A'Marion Peterson 52 Yd Run (Michael Petro PAT failed)
TDQ2 11:1413–28
AJ Johnson 4 Yd Run (Collin Rogers Kick)
TDQ2 10:0319–28
Mekhi Anderson 45 Yd pass from Owen McCown (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
TDQ2 0:5019–35
Leonard Farrow 18 Yd pass from Caden Veltkamp (Collin Rogers Kick)
FGQ2 0:0022–35
Michael Petro 54 Yd Field Goal
TDQ3 14:1022–43
AJ Johnson 4 Yd Run (Caden Veltkamp Pass to Kelby Valsin for Two-Point Conversion)
TDQ3 11:4929–43
Isaiah Butler-Tanner 26 Yd pass from Owen McCown (Michael Petro Kick)
TDQ3 1:1929–50
Leonard Farrow 59 Yd Run (Collin Rogers Kick)
TDQ4 11:3529–57
Easton Messer 6 Yd pass from Caden Veltkamp (Collin Rogers Kick)
FGQ4 3:5829–60
Alex Grace 37 Yd Field Goal

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

UTSA	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	QBR
Owen McCown #2	20/35	265	7.6	3	34.3
Brandon Tennison #11	1/2	7	3.5	0	--
Team	21/37	272	7.4	3	--

Rushing

UTSA	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
A'Marion Peterson #28	6	77	12.8	1	52
Mekhi Anderson #14	1	24	24.0	0	24
Brandon High Jr. #10	4	20	5.0	0	8
Will Henderson III #1	11	18	1.6	0	6
Owen McCown #2	9	8	0.9	0	11
Frankie Arthur Jr. #25	2	3	1.5	0	3
Brandon Tennison #11	3	2	0.7	0	3
Mark Wiepert #18	1	1	1.0	0	1
Team	37	153	4.1	1	52

Receiving

UTSA	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Mekhi Anderson #14	6	117	19.5	2	45
DJ Allen Jr. #15	4	48	12.0	0	20
Isaiah Butler-Tanner #86	2	33	16.5	1	26
Will Henderson III #1	4	24	6.0	0	20
Brandon Young Jr. #89	1	23	23.0	0	23
David Amador II #0	2	18	9.0	0	19
James Madison II #17	1	5	5.0	0	5
A'Marion Peterson #28	1	4	4.0	0	4
Team	21	272	13.0	3	45

Fumbles

UTSA	FUM	LOST
Brandon Tennison #11	1	1
Will Henderson III #1	1	1
Mark Wiepert #18	1	0
Team	3	2

Defense

UTSA	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HUR
Darion White #44	9	5	0	1	0	0
Elijah Newell #22	7	5	0	0	0	0
Joel Rogers #14	5	4	0	0	0	0
Jeremiah Bailey #0	5	2	0	1	0	1
Eze Osondu #53	5	1	0	2	0	0
Jameian Buxton #98	4	3	0	0	0	0
RJ Lester Jr. #13	4	3	0	0.5	0	0
Cameron Upshaw Jr. #11	4	2	0	0	0	0
Ahamad Chapman #18	4	1	0	0	0	0
Nate Robinson Jr. #25	3	3	0	1	0	0
Bryce Grays #26	3	2	0	0	0	0
Willie Nelson III #24	3	2	0	1	0	0
James Walley Jr. #34	3	1	0	1	0	0
Braeden Lott #58	2	2	0	0	0	0
Xavier Walton #29	2	2	0	0	0	0
Owen Pewee #2	2	1	0	0	0	0
Dylan Spencer #31	2	1	0	0	0	0
Tai Leonard #99	2	0	0	0.5	0	1
Drenon Fite III #95	2	0	0	0	0	0
Eddy Smith #94	1	1	1	1	0	0
Camron Cooper #1	1	1	0	0	0	0
Will Henderson III #1	1	1	0	0	0	0
Jusiah Sampleton #91	1	1	0	0	0	1
Asaad Chapman #17	1	0	0	0	1	0
Team	76	44	1	9	1	3

Kick returns

UTSA	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Mekhi Anderson #14	1	11	11.0	11	0
Team	1	11	11.0	11	0

Punt returns

UTSA	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG
David Amador II #0	1	4	4.0	4
Mark Wiepert #18	1	2	2.0	2
Team	2	6	3.0	4

Kicking

UTSA	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Michael Petro #92	1/1	100.0	54	2/3	5
Team	1/1	100.0	54	2/3	5

Punting

UTSA	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
Caile Hogan #30	7	292	41.7	1	0	48
Team	7	292	41.7	1	0	48

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	UTSA	FAU
1st Downs	24	27
3rd down efficiency	5-16	7-16
4th down efficiency	2-2	2-3
Total Yards	425	563
Passing	272	224
Comp/Att	21/37	18/26
Yards per pass	7.4	8.6
Rushing	153	339
Rushing Attempts	37	49
Yards per rush	4.1	6.9
Penalties	10-80	8-66
Turnovers	2	0
Fumbles lost	2	0
Interceptions thrown	0	0
Possession	29:55	30:05

Computer pick · Spread

FAU +7

51%

At lock UTSA 38.31–32.05 FAU · UTSA by 6.3 pts vs FAU +7 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock

Hit

Players

Owen McCown · UTSA
20/35 C/ATT · 265 YDS
Caden Veltkamp · FAU
17/25 C/ATT · 210 YDS
A'Marion Peterson · UTSA
6 CAR · 77 YDS
Leonard Farrow · FAU
12 CAR · 126 YDS
Mekhi Anderson · UTSA
6 REC · 117 YDS
Easton Messer · FAU
7 REC · 85 YDS

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

UTSA vs FAU pick result · Nov 5, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is FAU +7, with a 51% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NCAAF picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day