Fresno State Bulldogs at Utah State Aggies
Final · USA Net
10–17
At lock: projected FRES 23.23–20.37 USU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:38 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1114394725
- Winner: Fresno St (57%)
- Spread: FRES -2.5 covers (54%)
- Total: Over 42.5 (55%)
- Score error (both teams)16
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: FRES vs USU
The model
How this number was built
FRES 23.23–20.37 USU · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexUSU -4.1 vs FRES +0.5 · pred margin +0.4
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +1.2 vs +4.5 · model USU 20.5–22.3 FRES
- Home field+3.0 pts to USU
- RecordUSU 4-5 · FRES 5-4
- Market priorBlended 66% toward USU -1.5 / total 44.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FRES | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 10 |
| USU | 0 | 14 | 0 | 3 | 17 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ2 14:500–7
Sesi Vailahi 2 Yd Run (Kian Afrookhteh Kick)
- TDQ2 9:470–14
McCae Hillstead 3 Yd Run (Kian Afrookhteh Kick)
- FGQ3 7:143–14
Manaki Watanabe 32 Yd Field Goal
- FGQ4 4:213–17
Kian Afrookhteh 43 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ4 1:3010–17
Ezekiel Avit 12 Yd pass from Jayden Mandal (Manaki Watanabe Kick)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| FRES | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jayden Mandal #7 | 22/39 | 262 | 6.7 | 1 | 0 | 59.3 |
| Team | 22/39 | 262 | 6.7 | 1 | 0 | -- |
Rushing
| FRES | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Bryson Donelson #6 | 6 | 15 | 2.5 | 0 | 10 |
 Jordan Malau'ulu #10 | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 | 12 |
 Julius Gillick #24 | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 | 4 |
 Rayshon Luke #2 | 7 | -3 | -0.4 | 0 | 3 |
Jayden Mandal #7 | 7 | -10 | -1.4 | 0 | 1 |
 Josiah Freeman #5 | 1 | -10 | -10.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 27 | 16 | 0.6 | 0 | 12 |
Receiving
| FRES | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Josiah Freeman #5 | 8 | 114 | 14.3 | 0 | 30 |
 Jake Appleget #87 | 4 | 75 | 18.8 | 0 | 31 |
 Ezekiel Avit #0 | 2 | 26 | 13.0 | 1 | 14 |
 Brock Lium #89 | 2 | 22 | 11.0 | 0 | 23 |
Rayshon Luke #2 | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 | 9 |
 Jahlil McClain #1 | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 | 5 |
Bryson Donelson #6 | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | 4 |
 Gavin Correia #86 | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Team | 22 | 262 | 11.9 | 1 | 31 |
Defense
| FRES | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Gerayas Grimes #27 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kiontre Harris #31 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Martin Owusu #8 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Logan Goodspeed #99 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Tytus Khajavi #35 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Dylan Hampsten #11 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Simeon Harris #5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Croix Stewart #24 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 K'vion Thunderbird #1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Mordecai Hines #89 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Maverick Noonan #95 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Tommy Nix #36 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Logan Studt #18 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Andre Cobb #2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Cam Cole #13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Lucas Blumling #42 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jahzon Jacks #6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Steven Scott III #98 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Nick Verdugo #41 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Deijon Laffitte #0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Ethan Tierney #4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Jack Baldi #53 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Brendan Huddleston #55 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 65 | 21 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Kick returns
| FRES | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rayshon Luke #2 | 2 | 38 | 19.0 | 19 | 0 |
| Team | 2 | 38 | 19.0 | 19 | 0 |
Punt returns
| FRES | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jordan Malau'ulu #10 | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
Kicking
| FRES | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Manaki Watanabe #38 | 1/1 | 100.0 | 32 | 1/1 | 4 |
| Team | 1/1 | 100.0 | 32 | 1/1 | 4 |
Punting
| FRES | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nick Verdugo #41 | 7 | 281 | 40.1 | 0 | 3 | 47 |
| Team | 7 | 281 | 40.1 | 0 | 3 | 47 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| FRES | USU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 15 | 15 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 5-15 | 5-13 |
| 4th down efficiency | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Total Yards | 278 | 269 |
| Passing | 262 | 117 |
| Comp/Att | 22/39 | 9/14 |
| Yards per pass | 6.7 | 8.4 |
| Rushing | 16 | 152 |
| Rushing Attempts | 27 | 41 |
| Yards per rush | 0.6 | 3.7 |
| Penalties | 6-52 | 3-31 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 0 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 | 0 |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 0 |
| Possession | 30:57 | 29:03 |
At lock FRES 23.23–20.37 USU · FRES by 2.9 pts vs FRES -2.5 · 50% is the confidence saved at lock
MissJayden Mandal · FRES
22/39 C/ATT · 262 YDSMcCae Hillstead · USU
9/14 C/ATT · 117 YDSBryson Donelson · FRES
6 CAR · 15 YDSJosiah Freeman · FRES
8 REC · 114 YDSAnthony Garcia · USU
2 REC · 39 YDSGerayas Grimes · FRES
7 TOT · 6 SOLO
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Fresno St vs Utah State pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is FRES -2.5, with a 50% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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