Michigan Wolverines at #18 Oregon Ducks
Final · FS1
7–31
At lock: projected MICH 13.30–25.50 ORE
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 13, 3:20 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1292658223
- Winner: Oregon (78%)
- Spread: ORE -10.5 covers (53%)
- Total: Over 38.5 (53%)
- Score error (both teams)13
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: MICH vs ORE
The model
How this number was built
MICH 13.30–25.50 ORE · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexORE +19.7 vs MICH +9.2 · pred margin +11.2
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +11.5 vs +5.0 · model ORE 29.4–16.0 MICH
- Home field+3.0 pts to ORE
- RecordORE 7-3 · MICH 5-5
- Market priorBlended 66% toward ORE -10 / total 39.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MICH | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| ORE | 14 | 7 | 0 | 10 | 31 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ1 13:000–7
Jeremiah McClellan 60 Yd pass from Dylan Raiola (Gage Hurych Kick)
- TDQ1 0:130–14
Da'Jaun Riggs 2 Yd pass from Dylan Raiola (Gage Hurych Kick)
- TDQ2 14:497–14
Savion Hiter 70 Yd Run (Jacob Baggett Kick)
- TDQ2 0:067–21
Dakorien Moore 59 Yd pass from Dylan Raiola (Gage Hurych Kick)
- TDQ4 4:037–28
Dierre Hill Jr. 49 Yd pass from Dylan Raiola (Gage Hurych Kick)
- FGQ4 0:407–31
Gage Hurych 21 Yd Field Goal
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| MICH | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tommy Carr #14 | 4/12 | 45 | 3.8 | 0 | 0 | 14.7 |
 Bryce Underwood #19 | 2/8 | 26 | 3.3 | 0 | 0 | 41.6 |
| Team | 6/20 | 71 | 3.6 | 0 | 0 | -- |
Rushing
| MICH | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Savion Hiter #5 | 13 | 107 | 8.2 | 1 | 70 |
 Bryson Kuzdzal #24 | 9 | 46 | 5.1 | 0 | 8 |
Tommy Carr #14 | 9 | 43 | 4.8 | 0 | 20 |
 Jordan Marshall #23 | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 0 | 10 |
Bryce Underwood #19 | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | 5 |
Team | 2 | -7 | -3.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 40 | 215 | 5.4 | 1 | 70 |
Receiving
| MICH | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Andrew Marsh #3 | 4 | 46 | 11.5 | 0 | 14 |
 Jalen Hoffman #42 | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 | 18 |
Savion Hiter #5 | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | 7 |
| Team | 6 | 71 | 11.8 | 0 | 18 |
Fumbles
| MICH | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
Bryson Kuzdzal #24 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Tommy Carr #14 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Team | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Savion Hiter #5 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 4 | 2 | 0 |
Defense
| MICH | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Chris Bracy #7 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Zeke Berry #10 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Troy Bowles #18 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 John Henry Daley #90 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Smith Snowden #3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jyaire Hill #0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Benny Patterson III #93 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Nathaniel Staehling #44 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Rod Moore Jr. #1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jonah Lea'ea #91 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Trey Pierce #95 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Enow Etta #17 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Dom Nichols #8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Bobby Kanka #99 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Mason Curtis #25 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Chase Taylor #4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Jeremiah Earby #26 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Max Alford #30 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Aisea Moa #13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Deakon Tonielli #88 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Shamari Earls #2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Nathaniel Owusu-Boateng #12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Bryson Kuzdzal #24 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 69 | 35 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Kicking
| MICH | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jacob Baggett #97 | 0/0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1/1 | 1 |
| Team | 0/0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1/1 | 1 |
Punting
| MICH | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Cam Brown #33 | 5 | 210 | 42.0 | 0 | 3 | 48 |
| Team | 5 | 210 | 42.0 | 0 | 3 | 48 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| MICH | ORE | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 13 | 18 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 4-13 | 6-15 |
| 4th down efficiency | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| Total Yards | 286 | 467 |
| Passing | 71 | 341 |
| Comp/Att | 6/20 | 20/28 |
| Yards per pass | 3.6 | 12.2 |
| Rushing | 215 | 126 |
| Rushing Attempts | 40 | 36 |
| Yards per rush | 5.4 | 3.5 |
| Penalties | 6-46 | 7-69 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 0 |
| Fumbles lost | 2 | 0 |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 0 |
| Possession | 29:39 | 30:21 |
Model projected MICH 13.30 – 25.50 ORE at lock · below the strong-play bar (edge -1.3%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet
Tommy Carr · MICH
4/12 C/ATT · 45 YDSDylan Raiola · ORE
20/28 C/ATT · 341 YDSSavion Hiter · MICH
13 CAR · 107 YDSDierre Hill Jr. · ORE
21 CAR · 98 YDSAndrew Marsh · MICH
4 REC · 46 YDSJeremiah McClellan · ORE
4 REC · 105 YDS
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Michigan vs Oregon pick result · Nov 14, 2026
Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAF picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day