NCAAFFinalCamp Randall Stadium

Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Wisconsin Badgers

Final · BTN

10–31

RutgersWisconsin

Final

Rutgers Scarlet Knights

2-7 · L4

232 PF · 323 PA

Final

Wisconsin Badgers

6-3 · L1

241 PF · 171 PA

RUTG 16%WIS 84%

At lock: projected RUTG 15.46–31.29 WIS

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 7:14 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3372832716

Winner called · off by 6

Most typical sim

RUTG 16 – WIS 31

Final

RUTG 10 – WIS 31

Winner: Wisconsin (84%)
Spread: RUTG +18.5 covers (56%)
Total: Over 46.5 (53%)
Score error (both teams)6

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: RUTG vs WIS

The model

How this number was built

RUTG 15.46–31.29 WIS · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
WIS +9.2 vs RUTG -5.3 · pred margin +18.4
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +4.3 vs -2.1 · model WIS 30.4–17.1 RUTG
Home field
+3.0 pts to WIS
Record
WIS 6-3 · RUTG 2-7
Market prior
Blended 66% toward WIS -19.5 / total 45.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
RUTG	3	7	0	0	10
WIS	7	6	11	7	31

How the points were scored

TDQ1 6:250–7
Eugene Hilton Jr. 21 Yd pass from Ryan Hopkins (Gavin Lahm Kick)
FGQ1 0:303–7
Jack Scullion 45 Yd Field Goal
FGQ2 8:093–10
Gavin Lahm 51 Yd Field Goal
TDQ2 3:2110–10
Dyzier Carter 30 Yd pass from AJ Surace (Jack Scullion Kick)
FGQ2 0:2410–13
Gavin Lahm 26 Yd Field Goal
FGQ3 4:5210–16
Gavin Lahm 22 Yd Field Goal
TDQ3 1:2910–24
Ryan Schwendeman 11 Yd pass from Ryan Hopkins (Ryan Hopkins Pass to Eugene Hilton Jr. for Two-Point Conversion)
TDQ4 10:0810–31
Jacob Harris 66 Yd pass from Ryan Hopkins (Gavin Lahm Kick)

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

RUTG	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	QBR
AJ Surace #10	14/24	161	6.7	1	0	45.8
Team	14/24	161	6.7	1	0	--

Rushing

RUTG	CAR	YDS	AVG	LONG
Antwan Raymond #3	15	56	3.7	11
Clay Thevenin #9	10	40	4.0	8
Aiden Gibson #32	1	9	9.0	9
Ja'shon Benjamin #20	1	3	3.0	3
AJ Surace #10	9	-14	-1.6	5
Team	36	94	2.6	11

Receiving

RUTG	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Ben Black III #2	6	70	11.7	0	18
Dyzier Carter #0	2	40	20.0	1	30
Antwan Raymond #3	1	21	21.0	0	21
Elias Coke #13	2	18	9.0	0	11
Logan Blake #11	2	14	7.0	0	9
Clay Thevenin #9	1	-2	-2.0	0	0
Team	14	161	11.5	1	30

Fumbles

RUTG	FUM	LOST	REC
Malachi Davis #11	0	0	1
Team	0	0	1

Defense

RUTG	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD
Tariq Hayer #44	7	4	0	0	1
Sean Allison #41	5	4	0	0	0
JJ Conyers #25	5	3	0	0	0
Jesse Ofurie #16	4	2	0	0	0
Chris Joines #20	4	2	0	0	0
DK Gilley #9	4	2	0	0	0
Moses Walker #2	4	1	0	0	0
Sekou Kromah #8	4	1	0	0.5	0
Sage Clawges #27	2	2	0	0	0
Rondo Porter #99	2	2	0	0	0
Zaire Angoy #55	2	1	1	1.5	0
Devonte Anderson #21	2	1	0	0	1
Bradlee Jones #5	2	0	0	0	0
DJ Allen #42	1	1	1	1	0
Keshon Griffin #96	1	1	0	0	0
Malachi Davis #11	1	1	0	0	0
RJ Johnson Jr. #14	1	1	0	0	0
Farell Gnago #90	1	0	0	0	0
Messiah Tilson #18	1	0	0	0	0
Team	53	29	2	3	2

Kick returns

RUTG	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Ben Black III #2	1	15	15.0	15	0
Team	1	15	15.0	15	0

Kicking

RUTG	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Jack Scullion #93	1/1	100.0	45	1/1	4
Team	1/1	100.0	45	1/1	4

Punting

RUTG	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
Jakob Anderson #94	5	186	37.2	1	1	47
Team	5	186	37.2	1	1	47

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	RUTG	WIS
1st Downs	15	21
3rd down efficiency	4-13	4-10
4th down efficiency	1-3	0-0
Total Yards	255	363
Passing	161	241
Comp/Att	14/24	18/24
Yards per pass	6.7	10.0
Rushing	94	122
Rushing Attempts	36	29
Yards per rush	2.6	4.2
Penalties	5-66	4-35
Turnovers	0	1
Fumbles lost	0	1
Interceptions thrown	0	0
Possession	32:25	27:35

Computer pick · Spread

RUTG +17.5

53%

At lock RUTG 15.46–31.29 WIS · WIS by 15.8 pts vs RUTG +17.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock

Miss

Players

AJ Surace · RUTG
14/24 C/ATT · 161 YDS
Ryan Hopkins · WIS
18/24 C/ATT · 241 YDS
Antwan Raymond · RUTG
15 CAR · 56 YDS
Eugene Hilton Jr. · WIS
3 CAR · 39 YDS
Ben Black III · RUTG
6 REC · 70 YDS
Shamar Rigby · WIS
4 REC · 71 YDS

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Rutgers vs Wisconsin pick result · Nov 7, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is RUTG +17.5, with a 53% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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