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NationsMNEatCYP8:00 AM CTNationsARMatLVA8:00 AM CTNFLNEatDET8:30 AM CTNCAABABABACatFGCU11:00 AM CTNCAABQUINatCCSU11:00 AM CTNationsALBatBLR11:00 AM CTNationsSMRatFIN11:00 AM CTNFLKCatATL12:00 PM CTNFLHOUatCLE12:00 PM CTNFLMINatGB12:00 PM CTNFLJAXatTEN12:00 PM CTNFLMIAatIND12:00 PM CT
Board/NCAAF
NCAAFFinalHusky Stadium

Penn State Nittany Lions at Washington Huskies

Final · FS1

Penn State28–25Washington
Penn StateWashington
Final
Penn State Nittany Lions
5-4 · W3
302 PF · 188 PA
28
Final
Final
Washington Huskies
5-4 · W1
258 PF · 211 PA
25
PSU 44%WASH 56%

At lock: projected PSU 22.12–24.58 WASH

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 7:14 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3389610335

Missed · off by 6
Most typical sim
PSU 22 – WASH 25
Final
PSU 28 – WASH 25
  • Winner: Washington (56%)
  • Spread: WASH -2.5 covers (53%)
  • Total: Over 44.5 (60%)
  • Score error (both teams)6

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: PSU vs WASH

The model

How this number was built

PSU 22.12–24.58 WASH · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

  • Power index
    WASH +6.6 vs PSU +12.2 · pred margin +1.3
  • Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
    Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +6.3 vs +6.9 · model WASH 25.9–23.6 PSU
  • Home field
    +3.0 pts to WASH
  • Record
    WASH 5-4 · PSU 5-4
  • Market prior
    Blended 66% toward WASH -2.5 / total 46.5
Full write-up of the model

Line score

Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PSU7210028
WASH3311825

How the points were scored

  • FGQ1 8:130–3

    Tyler Robles 29 Yd Field Goal

  • TDQ1 4:357–3

    Carson Hansen 12 Yd Run (Ryan Barker Kick)

  • TDQ2 14:4314–3

    Zay Robinson 24 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Ryan Barker Kick)

  • TDQ2 10:0321–3

    Chase Sowell 45 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Ryan Barker Kick)

  • FGQ2 5:1021–6

    Tyler Robles 31 Yd Field Goal

  • TDQ2 2:4428–6

    Cam Wallace 46 Yd Run (Ryan Barker Kick)

  • FGQ3 10:2728–9

    Tyler Robles 47 Yd Field Goal

  • TDQ3 3:5528–17

    Baron Naone 4 Yd pass from Demond Williams Jr. (Demond Williams Jr. Pass to Rashid Williams for Two-Point Conversion)

  • TDQ4 7:4028–25

    Dezmen Roebuck 6 Yd pass from Demond Williams Jr. (Demond Williams Jr. Pass to Baron Naone for Two-Point Conversion)

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

PSUC/ATTYDSAVGTDINTQBR
Rocco Becht
#3
16/272408.92066.1
Team16/272408.920--

Rushing

PSUCARYDSAVGTDLONG
Carson Hansen
#21
141198.5136
Cam Wallace
#26
7568.0146
Rocco Becht
#3
12100.8010
Team
4-11-2.800
Team371744.7246

Receiving

PSURECYDSAVGTDLONG
Chase Sowell
#0
412531.3145
Benjamin Brahmer
#18
4369.0024
Brett Eskildsen
#4
23517.5018
Zay Robinson
#2
23015.0124
Andrew Rappleyea
#87
2168.0012
Carson Hansen
#21
155.005
Quinton Martin Jr.
#25
010.001
Audavion Collins
#2
1-8-8.000
Team1624015.0245

Fumbles

PSUFUMLOSTREC
Team
100
Rocco Becht
#3
100
Team200

Defense

PSUTOTSOLOSACKSTFLPDQB HURTD
Tony Rojas
#13
8501010
Kooper Ebel
#8
8400.5000
Jamison Patton
#3
6500100
Alexander McPherson
#33
4301000
Ikenna Ezeogu
#1
4200000
Josiah Zayas
#17
4200.5000
Audavion Collins
#2
3300100
Daryus Dixson
#5
3200110
Armstrong Nnodim
#91
3000000
Zion Tracy
#7
2200000
Yvan Kemajou
#19
200.50.5000
Jeremiah Cooper
#4
1100000
Jahmir Joseph
#0
1100000
Marcus Neal Jr.
#31
1100000
Ibn McDaniels
#24
1100000
Tyrell Chatman
#20
1100000
Lucas Tenbrock
#96
1100000
Ty Blanding
#39
100.50.5000
Team543414320

Interceptions

PSUINTYDSTD
Ibn McDaniels
#24
140
Team140

Punt returns

PSUNOYDSAVGLONGTD
Zay Robinson
#2
11010.0100
Team11010.0100

Kicking

PSUFGPCTLONGXPPTS
Ryan Barker
#94
0/00.004/44
Team0/00.004/44

Punting

PSUNOYDSAVGTBIn 20LONG
Nathan Tiyce
#38
416040.00143
Team416040.00143

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

PSUWASH
1st Downs2115
3rd down efficiency7-154-12
4th down efficiency2-30-0
Total Yards414306
Passing240172
Comp/Att16/2719/33
Yards per pass8.95.2
Rushing174134
Rushing Attempts3725
Yards per rush4.75.4
Penalties4-404-32
Turnovers01
Fumbles lost00
Interceptions thrown01
Possession31:1428:46
Computer pick · Spread
PSU +2.5
51%

At lock PSU 22.12–24.58 WASH · WASH by 2.5 pts vs PSU +2.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock

Hit
Players

  • Rocco Becht · PSU

    16/27 C/ATT · 240 YDS

  • Demond Williams Jr. · WASH

    19/33 C/ATT · 172 YDS

  • Carson Hansen · PSU

    14 CAR · 119 YDS

  • Jayden Limar · WASH

    9 CAR · 66 YDS

  • Chase Sowell · PSU

    4 REC · 125 YDS

  • Chris Lawson · WASH

    5 REC · 89 YDS

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Penn State vs Washington pick result · Nov 7, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is PSU +2.5, with a 51% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NCAAF picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day

Overline Sports

Projections blend power-index ratings with DraftKings lines. Every game carries a computer pick and a tagged DK prop; closed games are graded against those pre-game leans. Statistical estimates, not betting advice. Live scores, clocks, and team pages from ESPN.

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