NCAAFFinalRoss-Ade Stadium

Maryland Terrapins at Purdue Boilermakers

Final · BTN

34–29

MarylandPurdue

Final

Maryland Terrapins

3-6 · W2

273 PF · 303 PA

Final

Purdue Boilermakers

3-6 · L4

272 PF · 319 PA

MD 36%PUR 64%

At lock: projected MD 26.13–31.77 PUR

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 5, 11:55 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3406387954

Missed · off by 11

Most typical sim

MD 26 – PUR 32

Final

MD 34 – PUR 29

Winner: Purdue (63%)
Spread: PUR -5.5 covers (50%)
Total: Over 56.5 (57%)
Score error (both teams)11

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: MD vs PUR

The model

How this number was built

MD 26.13–31.77 PUR · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
PUR +1.3 vs MD -3.5 · pred margin +5.7
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -1.9 vs -1.2 · model PUR 30.0–27.8 MD
Home field
+3.0 pts to PUR
Record
PUR 3-6 · MD 3-6
Market prior
Blended 66% toward PUR -5.5 / total 56.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
MD	0	7	21	6	34
PUR	3	9	7	10	29

How the points were scored

FGQ1 11:390–3
Jacobo Echeverria Lozano 47 Yd Field Goal
FGQ2 13:030–6
Jacobo Echeverria Lozano 26 Yd Field Goal
FGQ2 7:200–9
Jacobo Echeverria Lozano 24 Yd Field Goal
TDQ2 6:347–9
Malik Washington 15 Yd Run (Sean O'Haire Kick)
FGQ2 1:457–12
Jacobo Echeverria Lozano 36 Yd Field Goal
TDQ3 8:5314–12
Na'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding 44 Yd pass from Malik Washington (Sean O'Haire Kick)
TDQ3 6:0321–12
Malik Washington 1 Yd Run (Sean O'Haire Kick)
TDQ3 2:5421–19
Xavier Townsend 30 Yd Run (Jacobo Echeverria Lozano Kick)
TDQ3 2:4328–19
DeJuan Williams 75 Yd Run (Sean O'Haire Kick)
FGQ4 12:1328–22
Jacobo Echeverria Lozano 22 Yd Field Goal
TDQ4 9:1334–22
Chris Durr Jr. 87 Yd pass from Malik Washington (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
TDQ4 3:5034–29
Fame Ijeboi 2 Yd Run (Jacobo Echeverria Lozano Kick)

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

MD	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	QBR
Malik Washington #7	13/18	253	14.1	2	1	89.6
Team	13/18	253	14.1	2	1	--

Rushing

MD	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
DeJuan Williams #0	14	99	7.1	1	75
Malik Washington #7	8	32	4.0	2	15
Iverson Howard #24	3	5	1.7	0	4
Dorian Fleming #9	2	1	0.5	0	1
Team	27	137	5.1	3	75

Receiving

MD	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Chris Durr Jr. #13	4	127	31.8	1	87
N Na'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding #1	3	78	26.0	1	44
Preston Howard #8	2	19	9.5	0	17
Kaleb Webb #2	2	17	8.5	0	11
Iverson Howard #24	1	8	8.0	0	8
Dorian Fleming #9	1	4	4.0	0	4
Team	13	253	19.5	2	87

Fumbles

MD	FUM	REC
DeJuan Williams #0	1	0
Daniel Wingate #1	0	1
Team	1	1

Defense

MD	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HUR
Nahsir Taylor #40	11	4	1	2.5	0	0
Sidney Stewart #11	9	2	0.5	0.5	0	0
Lavain Scruggs #2	8	4	1	1	0	0
Daniel Wingate #1	7	5	0	1	0	0
Trey Reddick #3	7	5	0	2	1	0
Amari Jackson #24	6	4	0	0	1	0
Darrell Carey #5	4	4	0	0	0	0
Messiah Delhomme #33	4	3	0	0	0	0
Zion Elee #0	4	2	2.5	2.5	0	1
Carlton Smith #32	3	2	1	2	0	0
Lavon Johnson #99	3	2	0	0	0	0
Jamare Glasker #4	3	2	0	0	0	0
Judah Jenkins #21	3	1	0	0	0	0
DD Holmes #56	2	1	1	1	0	0
Daniel Owens #39	2	1	0	0	0	0
Jayden Shipps #12	2	1	0	0	0	0
Jordan Scruggs #6	2	1	0	0	0	0
Armon Parker #95	1	1	0	0	0	0
Ricardo Cooper Jr. #25	1	1	0	0	0	0
N Na'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding #1	1	1	0	0	0	0
Dontay Joyner #16	1	0	0	0	0	0
Bryce Jenkins #57	1	0	0	0.5	0	0
Derrick LeBlanc #88	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team	85	47	7	13	3	1

Kick returns

MD	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG
Ricardo Cooper Jr. #25	3	79	26.3	45
Terrez Worthy #26	1	12	12.0	12
Team	4	91	22.8	45

Kicking

MD	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Sean O'Haire #36	0/0	0.0	0	4/4	4
Team	0/0	0.0	0	4/4	4

Punting

MD	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
Bryce McFerson #34	4	142	35.5	0	1	46
Team	4	142	35.5	0	1	46

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	MD	PUR
1st Downs	12	26
3rd down efficiency	5-10	7-17
4th down efficiency	1-1	3-4
Total Yards	390	425
Passing	253	296
Comp/Att	13/18	24/38
Yards per pass	14.1	7.8
Rushing	137	129
Rushing Attempts	27	42
Yards per rush	5.1	3.1
Penalties	9-107	2-10
Turnovers	1	1
Fumbles lost	0	1
Interceptions thrown	1	0
Possession	24:04	35:56

Computer pick · Spread

MD +6.5

51%

At lock MD 26.13–31.77 PUR · PUR by 5.6 pts vs MD +6.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock

Hit

Players

Malik Washington · MD
13/18 C/ATT · 253 YDS
Ryan Browne · PUR
24/38 C/ATT · 296 YDS
DeJuan Williams · MD
14 CAR · 99 YDS
Antonio Harris · PUR
5 CAR · 51 YDS
Chris Durr Jr. · MD
4 REC · 127 YDS
Tra'Mar Harris · PUR
3 REC · 76 YDS

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Maryland vs Purdue pick result · Nov 7, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is MD +6.5, with a 51% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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