Michigan State Spartans at Michigan Wolverines
Final · Peacock
15–6
At lock: projected MSU 13.89–27.04 MICH
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 7:14 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3339277478
- Winner: Michigan (80%)
- Spread: MSU +13.5 covers (50%)
- Total: Over 39.5 (57%)
- Score error (both teams)22
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: MSU vs MICH
The model
How this number was built
MSU 13.89–27.04 MICH · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexMICH +9.2 vs MSU +2.2 · pred margin +12.8
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +5.0 vs -0.2 · model MICH 26.0–14.6 MSU
- Home field+3.0 pts to MICH
- RecordMICH 5-4 · MSU 3-6
- Market priorBlended 66% toward MICH -14 / total 39.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSU | 0 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 15 |
| MICH | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
How the points were scored
- FGQ2 1:333–0
Liam Boyd 21 Yd Field Goal
- FGQ2 0:056–0
Liam Boyd 37 Yd Field Goal
- FGQ3 2:129–0
Liam Boyd 38 Yd Field Goal
- FGQ4 5:0412–0
Liam Boyd 24 Yd Field Goal
- FGQ4 4:0915–0
Liam Boyd 49 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ4 1:3515–6
Savion Hiter 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| MSU | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Alessio Milivojevic #11 | 21/32 | 188 | 5.9 | 0 | 0 | 59.0 |
| Team | 21/32 | 188 | 5.9 | 0 | 0 | -- |
Rushing
| MSU | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Brandon Tullis #7 | 25 | 86 | 3.4 | 0 | 9 |
 Kenneth Williams #32 | 10 | 41 | 4.1 | 0 | 23 |
 Carson Gulker #12 | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 | 6 |
Team | 3 | -11 | -3.7 | 0 | 0 |
Alessio Milivojevic #11 | 3 | -15 | -5.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 43 | 110 | 2.6 | 0 | 23 |
Receiving
| MSU | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Chrishon McCray #13 | 6 | 92 | 15.3 | 0 | 35 |
 Bryson Williams #14 | 1 | 36 | 36.0 | 0 | 36 |
Kenneth Williams #32 | 4 | 23 | 5.8 | 0 | 12 |
 Samson Gash #5 | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 | 11 |
 Fredrick Moore #6 | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 | 10 |
 Brennan Parachek #82 | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | 7 |
Brandon Tullis #7 | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 4 |
 Rodney Bullard Jr. #3 | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
Carson Gulker #12 | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 21 | 188 | 9.0 | 0 | 36 |
Fumbles
| MSU | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
Chrishon McCray #13 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Alessio Milivojevic #11 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Nikai Martinez #21 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 NiJhay Burt #0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 2 | 0 | 2 |
Defense
| MSU | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nikai Martinez #21 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
NiJhay Burt #0 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Trey Lisle #8 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Michael Richard #7 | 4 | 3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Dion Crawford #18 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Aveon Grose #30 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Brady Pretzlaff #45 | 3 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Anelu Lafaele #11 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Derrick Simmons #98 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Cam Stodghill #12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Carlos Hazelwood #25 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Devin Vaught #2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Mikeshun Beeler #52 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Eli Coenen #96 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Keahnist Thompson #9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kenny Soares Jr. #1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jack Yanachik #22 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jeremiah Favorite #24 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 DeJae White #23 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Tyran Chappell #22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 46 | 32 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
Interceptions
| MSU | INT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
NiJhay Burt #0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Devin Vaught #2 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| Team | 2 | -4 | 0 |
Punt returns
| MSU | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chrishon McCray #13 | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 | 0 |
Kicking
| MSU | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Liam Boyd #37 | 5/5 | 100.0 | 49 | 0/0 | 15 |
| Team | 5/5 | 100.0 | 49 | 0/0 | 15 |
Punting
| MSU | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Rhys Dakin #9 | 4 | 195 | 48.8 | 0 | 3 | 57 |
| Team | 4 | 195 | 48.8 | 0 | 3 | 57 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| MSU | MICH | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 17 | 13 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 9-20 | 2-10 |
| 4th down efficiency | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Total Yards | 298 | 192 |
| Passing | 188 | 138 |
| Comp/Att | 21/32 | 14/26 |
| Yards per pass | 5.9 | 5.3 |
| Rushing | 110 | 54 |
| Rushing Attempts | 43 | 26 |
| Yards per rush | 2.6 | 2.1 |
| Penalties | 7-70 | 2-20 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 4 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 | 2 |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 2 |
| Possession | 38:07 | 21:53 |
At lock MSU 13.89–27.04 MICH · MICH by 13.1 pts vs MICH -12.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock
MissAlessio Milivojevic · MSU
21/32 C/ATT · 188 YDSTommy Carr · MICH
14/26 C/ATT · 138 YDSBrandon Tullis · MSU
25 CAR · 86 YDSBryson Kuzdzal · MICH
9 CAR · 49 YDSChrishon McCray · MSU
6 REC · 92 YDSTravis Johnson · MICH
3 REC · 38 YDS
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Michigan St vs Michigan pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is MICH -12.5, with a 51% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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