NCAAFFinalGies Memorial Stadium

Nebraska Cornhuskers at Illinois Fighting Illini

Final · Fox

13–24

NebraskaIllinois

Final

Nebraska Cornhuskers

5-4 · W1

303 PF · 149 PA

Final

Illinois Fighting Illini

6-3 · L1

270 PF · 229 PA

NEB 61%ILL 39%

At lock: projected NEB 27.47–22.89 ILL

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 5, 8:02 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3356055097

Missed · off by 16

Most typical sim

NEB 28 – ILL 23

Final

NEB 13 – ILL 24

Winner: Nebraska (61%)
Spread: NEB -4.5 covers (51%)
Total: Over 49.5 (55%)
Score error (both teams)16

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: NEB vs ILL

The model

How this number was built

NEB 27.47–22.89 ILL · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
ILL +7.5 vs NEB +13.1 · pred margin -3.8
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +4.6 vs +7.7 · model ILL 22.6–24.3 NEB
Home field
+3.0 pts to ILL
Record
ILL 6-3 · NEB 5-4
Market prior
Blended 66% toward NEB -4.5 / total 52.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
NEB	0	7	0	6	13
ILL	0	7	7	10	24

How the points were scored

TDQ2 9:297–0
Mekhi Nelson 15 Yd Run (John Hohl Kick)
TDQ2 1:487–7
Collin Dixon 3 Yd pass from Katin Houser (Ethan Moczulski Kick)
TDQ3 8:337–14
Jordan Anderson 5 Yd pass from Katin Houser (Ethan Moczulski Kick)
TDQ4 13:387–21
Collin Dixon 6 Yd pass from Katin Houser (Ethan Moczulski Kick)
TDQ4 10:4413–21
Jacory Barney Jr. 51 Yd pass from Anthony Colandrea (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
FGQ4 7:5113–24
Ethan Moczulski 21 Yd Field Goal

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

NEB	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	QBR
Anthony Colandrea #10	32/43	284	6.6	1	0	53.0
Team	32/43	284	6.6	1	0	--

Rushing

NEB	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Jamal Rule #25	15	69	4.6	0	14
Isaiah Mozee #22	6	31	5.2	0	8
Anthony Colandrea #10	9	27	3.0	0	11
Mekhi Nelson #35	1	15	15.0	1	15
Team	31	142	4.6	1	15

Receiving

NEB	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Jacory Barney Jr. #2	6	93	15.5	1	51
Kwazi Gilmer #17	4	58	14.5	0	17
Luke Lindenmeyer #44	5	34	6.8	0	11
Nyziah Hunter #13	6	32	5.3	0	16
Jamal Rule #25	5	29	5.8	0	10
Quinn Clark #18	3	20	6.7	0	8
Carter Nelson #29	1	11	11.0	0	11
Isaiah Mozee #22	2	7	3.5	0	5
Team	32	284	8.9	1	51

Fumbles

NEB	FUM	LOST	REC
Anthony Colandrea #10	1	0	0
Team	1	0	0

Defense

NEB	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HUR
Vincent Shavers Jr. #9	7	4	0	1	0	0
Caleb Benning #28	6	4	0	0	0	0
Dwayne McDougle III #26	6	4	0	0	1	0
Andrew Marshall #10	5	5	0	0	1	0
Dexter Foster #24	5	4	0	0	0	0
Victor Evans III #22	4	2	0	0	0	0
Cameron Lenhardt #11	3	2	1	1	0	0
Jordan Ochoa #94	2	1	1	1	0	0
Owen Chambliss #33	2	1	0	1	0	1
Donovan Jones #37	2	1	0	0	0	0
Jahsear Whittington #44	2	0	0	0	0	0
Gage Stenger #47	1	1	0	0	0	0
Williams Nwaneri #96	1	1	0	0	0	1
Tyson Terry #71	1	1	0	0	0	0
Jasin Shiggs #30	1	1	0	0	0	0
Team	48	32	2	4	2	2

Kick returns

NEB	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Jacory Barney Jr. #2	3	54	18.0	26	0
Team	3	54	18.0	26	0

Punt returns

NEB	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Jacory Barney Jr. #2	2	35	17.5	19	0
Team	2	35	17.5	19	0

Kicking

NEB	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
John Hohl #90	0/2	0.0	0	1/1	1
Team	0/2	0.0	0	1/1	1

Punting

NEB	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
Archie Wilson #83	2	86	43.0	0	0	51
Team	2	86	43.0	0	0	51

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	NEB	ILL
1st Downs	25	19
3rd down efficiency	6-14	8-15
4th down efficiency	1-4	1-2
Total Yards	426	376
Passing	284	292
Comp/Att	32/43	22/36
Yards per pass	6.6	8.1
Rushing	142	84
Rushing Attempts	31	29
Yards per rush	4.6	2.9
Penalties	11-82	6-55
Turnovers	0	0
Fumbles lost	0	0
Interceptions thrown	0	0
Possession	31:57	28:03

Computer pick · Total

Over 49.5

51%

At lock NEB 27.47–22.89 ILL · 0.9 pts over 49.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock

Miss

Players

Anthony Colandrea · NEB
32/43 C/ATT · 284 YDS
Katin Houser · ILL
22/36 C/ATT · 292 YDS
Jamal Rule · NEB
15 CAR · 69 YDS
Aidan Laughery · ILL
11 CAR · 55 YDS
Jacory Barney Jr. · NEB
6 REC · 93 YDS
Collin Dixon · ILL
8 REC · 129 YDS

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Nebraska vs Illinois pick result · Nov 6, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 49.5, with a 51% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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