NCAAFFinalGerald J. Ford Stadium

#11 Wake Forest Demon Deacons at #25 SMU Mustangs

Final · ESPN

49–7

Wake ForestSMU

Final

#11Wake Forest Demon Deacons

9-1 · W7

439 PF · 150 PA

Final

#25SMU Mustangs

7-3 · L1

340 PF · 255 PA

WAKE 50%SMU 50%

At lock: projected WAKE 30.26–30.24 SMU

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 13, 12:40 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3703463493

Missed · off by 43

Most typical sim

WAKE 30 – SMU 31

Final

WAKE 49 – SMU 7

Winner: SMU (50%)
Spread: WAKE +1.5 covers (51%)
Total: Over 60.5 (52%)
Score error (both teams)43

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: WAKE vs SMU

The model

How this number was built

WAKE 30.26–30.24 SMU · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
SMU +11.9 vs WAKE +17.8 · pred margin +0.3
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +9.2 vs +15.2 · model SMU 26.2–32.3 WAKE
Home field
+3.0 pts to SMU
Record
SMU 7-3 · WAKE 9-1
Market prior
Blended 66% toward SMU -2.5 / total 60.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
WAKE	14	28	0	7	49
SMU	0	0	7	0	7

How the points were scored

TDQ1 11:047–0
Ty Clark III 27 Yd Run (Connor Calvert Kick)
TDQ1 3:2614–0
Jamar Searcy 6 Yd Run (Connor Calvert Kick)
TDQ2 12:1421–0
Carlos Hernandez 44 Yd pass from Gio Lopez (Connor Calvert Kick)
TDQ2 9:4228–0
Gio Lopez 5 Yd Run (Connor Calvert Kick)
TDQ2 4:3135–0
Deuce Lawrence 1 Yd Run (Connor Calvert Kick)
TDQ2 2:0242–0
Gio Lopez 5 Yd Run (Connor Calvert Kick)
TDQ3 3:5542–7
Yannick Smith 19 Yd pass from Kevin Jennings (Brendan Baird Kick)
TDQ4 13:2849–7
Steele Pizzella 25 Yd Run (Connor Calvert Kick)

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

WAKE	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	QBR
Gio Lopez #3	14/25	201	8.0	1	86.3
Steele Pizzella #6	4/5	48	9.6	0	94.4
Team	18/30	249	8.3	1	--

Rushing

WAKE	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Ty Clark III #4	11	77	7.0	1	27
Steele Pizzella #6	6	58	9.7	1	25
Jamar Searcy #29	4	44	11.0	1	38
Gio Lopez #3	8	34	4.3	2	11
Deuce Lawrence #22	8	30	3.8	1	8
Kyndall McCaleb #21	4	22	5.5	0	11
Ryan Henley #27	3	15	5.0	0	8
KD Daniels #1	1	6	6.0	0	6
Team	45	286	6.4	6	38

Receiving

WAKE	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Carlos Hernandez #8	6	94	15.7	1	44
Antonio Meeks #14	4	49	12.3	0	17
Jack Foley #10	2	42	21.0	0	29
Kam Shanks #5	2	41	20.5	0	35
Ty Clark III #4	1	9	9.0	0	9
Devin Goldston #82	1	9	9.0	0	9
Dominick Barry #84	1	6	6.0	0	6
Drayden Dickmann #18	1	-1	-1.0	0	0
Team	18	249	13.8	1	44

Fumbles

WAKE	FUM	LOST	REC
Jack Foley #10	1	1	0
Dallas Afalava #52	0	0	1
Kadear Dembele #55	0	0	1
Team	1	1	2

Defense

WAKE	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HUR
Deuce Blades II #2	5	4	0	0	0	0
Aiden Hall #21	5	3	0	0	1	0
Gabe Kirschke #10	4	3	1	1	0	0
Davaughn Patterson #5	4	3	0	0	0	0
Braylon Johnson #8	4	2	0	0	0	0
Vincent Firenze #23	4	1	0	0	0	1
Kerrington Lee #20	3	3	1	1	0	0
Rushaun Tongue #6	3	3	0	1	1	0
Myles Turpin #22	3	3	0	0	0	0
Micah Bright #24	2	2	0	0	0	0
Deuce Dyce #46	2	2	0	0	0	0
Matt Herron #97	2	1	0	0	0	1
Frank Cusano #43	2	1	0	0.5	0	0
Tyler Walton #14	2	0	0	0.5	0	0
Zach Lohavichan #94	1	1	1	1	0	0
Langston Hardy #11	1	1	0	0	0	0
Camden Hardy #9	1	1	0	0	0	0
Kadear Dembele #55	1	1	0	0	0	0
Monroe Partin #44	1	1	0	0	0	0
M Mahamadou Siby #39	1	1	0	0	0	0
Cade Holles #93	1	1	0	1	0	0
Dallas Afalava #52	0	0	0	0	0	1
Somad Eaddy #38	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team	52	38	3	6	3	3

Interceptions

WAKE	INT	YDS	TD
Aiden Hall #21	1	2	0
Team	1	2	0

Punt returns

WAKE	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Kam Shanks #5	1	15	15.0	15	0
Team	1	15	15.0	15	0

Kicking

WAKE	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Connor Calvert #90	0/0	0.0	0	7/7	7
Team	0/0	0.0	0	7/7	7

Punting

WAKE	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
Ethan Hyams #45	2	83	41.5	0	2	46
Team	2	83	41.5	0	2	46

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	WAKE	SMU
1st Downs	23	14
3rd down efficiency	10-15	3-14
4th down efficiency	2-3	3-5
Total Yards	535	275
Passing	249	209
Comp/Att	18/30	22/35
Yards per pass	8.3	6.0
Rushing	286	66
Rushing Attempts	45	27
Yards per rush	6.4	2.4
Penalties	6-47	5-41
Turnovers	1	3
Fumbles lost	1	2
Interceptions thrown	0	1
Possession	36:59	23:01

Lean · SpreadNot a strong playHit

WAKE +1.5

-120 at lock53%

Model projected WAKE 30.26 – 30.24 SMU at lock · below the strong-play bar (edge -1.6%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet

Players

Gio Lopez · WAKE
14/25 C/ATT · 201 YDS
Kevin Jennings · SMU
22/35 C/ATT · 209 YDS
Ty Clark III · WAKE
11 CAR · 77 YDS
Kendrick Raphael · SMU
15 CAR · 54 YDS
Carlos Hernandez · WAKE
6 REC · 94 YDS
Randy Pittman Jr. · SMU
5 REC · 76 YDS

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Wake Forest vs SMU pick result · Nov 14, 2026

Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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